Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a PSV Eindhoven win with a probability of 63.43%. A draw had a probability of 21% and a win for Sparta Rotterdam had a probability of 15.57%.
The most likely scoreline for a PSV Eindhoven win was 0-1 with a probability of 11.67%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-2 (11.49%) and 1-2 (9.84%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (9.99%), while for a Sparta Rotterdam win it was 1-0 (5.07%). The actual scoreline of 1-2 was predicted with a 9.8% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that PSV Eindhoven would win this match.