Euro Champ Qualifying | Group Stage
Sep 10, 2023 at 7.45pm UK
S. Dariaus ir S. Girėno stadionas
Lithuania1 - 3Serbia
FT(HT: 1-3)
Form, Standings, Stats
We said: Lithuania 0-2 Serbia
Serbia should expect to do the double over lowly Lithuania, who simply cannot buy a win and could be bound for bottom place in Group G. The gulf in class between the teams will be apparent, but a dogged rearguard action by the home side may keep the scoreline respectable. Read more.Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Serbia win with a probability of 74.26%. A draw had a probability of 16.9% and a win for Lithuania had a probability of 8.87%.
The most likely scoreline for a Serbia win was 0-2 with a probability of 14.16%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-1 (12.57%) and 0-3 (10.63%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (7.96%), while for a Lithuania win it was 1-0 (3.53%). The actual scoreline of 1-3 was predicted with a 6.7% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Serbia would win this match.
| Result | ||
| Lithuania | Draw | Serbia |
8.87% ( 0.24) | 16.87% ( 0.3) | 74.26% ( -0.54) |
| Both teams to score 41.96% ( 0.03) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
