Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Birmingham City win with a probability of 68.71%. A draw had a probability of 19.1% and a win for Exeter City had a probability of 12.16%.
The most likely scoreline for a Birmingham City win was 2-0 with a probability of 12.72%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (12.08%) and 2-1 (9.57%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (9.09%), while for a Exeter City win it was 0-1 (4.32%). The actual scoreline of 1-0 was predicted with a 12.1% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Birmingham City would win this match.