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League One | Gameweek 27
Jan 18, 2025 at 3pm UK
St. Andrew's Stadium
Exeter City

Birmingham
1 - 0
Exeter

Laird (45+2')
Leonard (36'), Klarer (45+1')
FT(HT: 1-0)

Woods (12'), McMillan (34'), Watts (52'), Harper (69')
McMillan (90+13')

The Match

Preview

Sports Mole previews Saturday's League One clash between Birmingham City and Exeter City, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

Form, Standings, Stats

Last Game: Swindon 1-2 Birmingham
Tuesday, January 14 at 7.30pm in EFL Trophy
Last Game: Exeter 3-1 Oxford Utd
Saturday, January 11 at 3pm in FA Cup

We said: Birmingham City 2-0 Exeter City

Although Exeter may feel encouraged that Birmingham have not always been convincing of late, we can only see one winner here. The dominant victory over Wigan should stand Blues in good stead and lead to another comfortable win. Read more.

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Birmingham City win with a probability of 68.71%. A draw had a probability of 19.1% and a win for Exeter City had a probability of 12.16%.

The most likely scoreline for a Birmingham City win was 2-0 with a probability of 12.72%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (12.08%) and 2-1 (9.57%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (9.09%), while for a Exeter City win it was 0-1 (4.32%). The actual scoreline of 1-0 was predicted with a 12.1% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Birmingham City would win this match.

Result
Birmingham CityDrawExeter City
68.71% (0.354 0.35) 19.13% (-0.22 -0.22) 12.16% (-0.138 -0.14)
Both teams to score 46.43% (0.285 0.28)
Goals
Over 2.5Under 2.5
54.42% (0.616 0.62)45.58% (-0.618 -0.62)
Over 3.5Under 3.5
32.09% (0.583 0.58)67.9% (-0.587 -0.59)
Birmingham City Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
87.82% (0.279 0.28)12.18% (-0.282 -0.28)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
62.18% (0.58799999999999 0.59)37.82% (-0.591 -0.59)
Exeter City Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
52.87% (0.156 0.16)47.12% (-0.16 -0.16)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
17.42% (0.119 0.12)82.58% (-0.121 -0.12)
Score Analysis
    Birmingham City 68.7%
    Exeter City 12.16%
    Draw 19.13%
Birmingham CityDrawExeter City
2-0 @ 12.72% (-0.049999999999999 -0.05)
1-0 @ 12.08% (-0.19 -0.19)
2-1 @ 9.57% (0.00099999999999945 0)
3-0 @ 8.93% (0.058 0.06)
3-1 @ 6.72% (0.073 0.07)
4-0 @ 4.7% (0.081 0.08)
4-1 @ 3.54% (0.077 0.08)
3-2 @ 2.53% (0.039 0.04)
5-0 @ 1.98% (0.056 0.06)
5-1 @ 1.49% (0.048 0.05)
4-2 @ 1.33% (0.034 0.03)
Other @ 3.13%
Total : 68.7%
1-1 @ 9.09% (-0.099 -0.1)
0-0 @ 5.74% (-0.153 -0.15)
2-2 @ 3.6% (0.017 0.02)
Other @ 0.7%
Total : 19.13%
0-1 @ 4.32% (-0.095000000000001 -0.1)
1-2 @ 3.42% (-0.021 -0.02)
0-2 @ 1.63% (-0.028 -0.03)
2-3 @ 0.9% (0.008 0.01)
Other @ 1.89%
Total : 12.16%

Head to Head
Dec 10, 2024 7.45pm
Second Round
Exeter
1-2
Birmingham
Sweeney (32')
Alli (40'), Cole (84'), Doyle (85')
Harris (22'), Anderson (78')
Buchanan (58'), Yokoyama (90'), Peacock-Farrell (90+5')
Nov 26, 2024 7.45pm
Gameweek 5
Exeter
0-2
Birmingham

Crama (28'), Francis (63'), Woods (64'), Doyle (84')
Iwata (11'), Stansfield (83' pen.)
Davies (39'), Bielik (61')
rhs 2.0
Today's games header
Tables header RHS
TeamPWDLFAGDPTS
1Birmingham CityBirmingham24175242172556
2Wycombe WanderersWycombe26166452282454
3Wrexham26156538201851
4Huddersfield TownHuddersfield25146539211848
5Barnsley2612684036442
6Stockport CountyStockport26118740281241
7Reading2512584036441
8Leyton Orient25115932221038
9Bolton WanderersBolton2511593839-138
10Mansfield TownMansfield2411493228437
11Lincoln CityLincoln269892930-135
12Charlton AthleticCharlton249782925434
13Rotherham UnitedRotherham259792826234
14Blackpool2571083437-331
15Stevenage248791922-331
16Exeter CityExeter2594122832-431
17Wigan AthleticWigan2486102324-130
18Bristol Rovers2584132539-1428
19Peterborough UnitedPeterborough2575134146-526
20Northampton TownNorthampton2668122440-1626
21Crawley TownCrawley2456132544-1921
22Shrewsbury TownShrewsbury2555152645-1920
23Cambridge UnitedCambridge2546152445-2118
24Burton Albion2529142139-1815


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