Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Arouca win with a probability of 43.44%. A win for Vitoria de Guimaraes had a probability of 31.95% and a draw had a probability of 24.6%.
The most likely scoreline for an Arouca win was 2-1 with a probability of 9.06%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (8.76%) and 2-0 (6.89%). The likeliest Vitoria de Guimaraes win was 1-2 (7.58%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.51%). The actual scoreline of 1-3 was predicted with a 3.3% likelihood.
Result | ||
Arouca | Draw | Vitoria de Guimaraes |
43.44% ( -0.01) | 24.61% ( -0) | 31.95% ( 0.01) |
Both teams to score 57.98% ( 0.01) |
Goals |
Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
55.13% ( 0.02) | 44.87% ( -0.02) |
Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
32.77% ( 0.02) | 67.23% ( -0.02) |
Arouca Goals |
Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
79.26% ( 0) | 20.74% ( -0) |
Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
46.63% ( 0.01) | 53.37% ( -0.01) |
Vitoria de Guimaraes Goals |
Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
73.16% ( 0.02) | 26.84% ( -0.01) |
Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
37.85% ( 0.02) | 62.14% ( -0.02) |
Score Analysis |
Arouca | Draw | Vitoria de Guimaraes |
2-1 @ 9.06% ( -0) 1-0 @ 8.76% ( -0.01) 2-0 @ 6.89% ( -0) 3-1 @ 4.75% ( 0) 3-0 @ 3.61% ( -0) 3-2 @ 3.12% ( 0) 4-1 @ 1.87% ( 0) 4-0 @ 1.42% 4-2 @ 1.23% ( 0) Other @ 2.74% Total : 43.44% | 1-1 @ 11.51% ( -0.01) 2-2 @ 5.96% ( 0) 0-0 @ 5.57% ( -0) 3-3 @ 1.37% ( 0) Other @ 0.19% Total : 24.6% | 1-2 @ 7.58% ( 0) 0-1 @ 7.32% ( -0) 0-2 @ 4.82% ( 0) 1-3 @ 3.32% ( 0) 2-3 @ 2.61% ( 0) 0-3 @ 2.11% ( 0) 1-4 @ 1.09% ( 0) Other @ 3.1% Total : 31.95% |
Team | P | W | D | L | F | A | GD | PTS | |
1 | Sporting Lisbon | 14 | 12 | 0 | 2 | 43 | 10 | 33 | 36 |
2 | Porto | 14 | 11 | 1 | 2 | 33 | 9 | 24 | 34 |
3 | Benfica | 13 | 10 | 2 | 1 | 32 | 8 | 24 | 32 |
4 | Santa ClaraSanta Clara | 14 | 9 | 0 | 5 | 16 | 13 | 3 | 27 |
5 | Braga | 14 | 7 | 4 | 3 | 25 | 16 | 9 | 25 |
6 | Vitoria de GuimaraesGuimaraes | 14 | 6 | 4 | 4 | 18 | 14 | 4 | 22 |
7 | MoreirenseMoreirense | 14 | 6 | 2 | 6 | 19 | 19 | 0 | 20 |
8 | FamalicaoFamalicao | 14 | 4 | 7 | 3 | 17 | 15 | 2 | 19 |
9 | Casa Pia | 14 | 4 | 5 | 5 | 13 | 17 | -4 | 17 |
10 | Gil Vicente | 14 | 4 | 4 | 6 | 17 | 24 | -7 | 16 |
11 | Rio AveRio Ave | 14 | 4 | 4 | 6 | 15 | 25 | -10 | 16 |
12 | Estoril PraiaEstoril | 14 | 3 | 5 | 6 | 12 | 21 | -9 | 14 |
13 | Nacional | 13 | 3 | 3 | 7 | 8 | 17 | -9 | 12 |
14 | AVS | 14 | 2 | 6 | 6 | 11 | 22 | -11 | 12 |
15 | Estrela Amadora | 14 | 3 | 3 | 8 | 12 | 24 | -12 | 12 |
16 | BoavistaBoavista | 14 | 2 | 5 | 7 | 10 | 19 | -9 | 11 |
17 | AroucaArouca | 14 | 3 | 2 | 9 | 8 | 23 | -15 | 11 |
18 | SC FarenseFarense | 14 | 2 | 3 | 9 | 7 | 20 | -13 | 9 |
> Primeira Liga Full Table |