While Boavista managed to get one over Benfica on home turf in August and appear to be improving under Paiva after their dismal run, they face a particularly difficult test in a trip to the capital to take on Benfica on Friday.
As Panteras will not make it easy for the defending champions, but Schmidt's side have the quality to come out on top at the Estadio da Luz and avenge the opening-day defeat, making it 17 league games unbeaten in the process.
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Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Benfica win with a probability of 72.89%. A draw had a probability of 16.8% and a win for Boavista had a probability of 10.35%.
The most likely scoreline for a Benfica win was 2-0 with a probability of 12.25%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (10.41%) and 3-0 (9.62%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (7.96%), while for a Boavista win it was 0-1 (3.38%). The actual scoreline of 2-0 was predicted with a 12.3% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted a 2-0 win for Benfica in this match.
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