MX23RW : Thursday, November 21 17:25:58| >> :600:3101609:3101609:
Benfica
Taca de Portugal | Round of 16
Jan 10, 2024 at 8.45pm UK
Estadio do Sport Lisboa e Benfica
Braga

Benfica
3 - 2
Braga

Silva (42'), Cabral (44'), Aursnes (70')
Morato (40'), di Maria (60')
FT(HT: 2-1)
Zalazar (7', 48')
Gomez (58'), Oliveira (72')

The Match

Preview

Sports Mole previews Wednesday's Taca de Portugal clash between Benfica and Braga, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

Form, Standings, Stats

Benfica

All competitions
Taca de Portugal
Last Game: Arouca 0-3 Benfica
Saturday, January 6 at 6pm in Primeira Liga

Braga

All competitions
Taca de Portugal
Last Game: Braga 1-1 Guimaraes
Saturday, January 6 at 8.30pm in Primeira Liga

We said: Benfica 2-1 Braga

 There has been little to separate Benfica and Braga in recent meetings, and another tightly-contested contest is set to be played out on Wednesday between two teams who will have confidence in their own abilities to secure the result that they need to advance to the quarter-finals. The absence of top scorer Banza is a blow for Braga, and they may find it difficult to outscore an in-form Benfica outfit who have found the net 14 times in their last five matches. Read more.

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Benfica win with a probability of 52.01%. A win for Braga had a probability of 24.63% and a draw had a probability of 23.4%.

The most likely scoreline for a Benfica win was 2-1 with a probability of 9.72%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (9.53%) and 2-0 (8.46%). The likeliest Braga win was 1-2 (6.3%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (10.95%). The actual scoreline of 3-2 was predicted with a 3.3% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Benfica would win this match.

Result
BenficaDrawBraga
52.01% (-0.255 -0.26) 23.36% (0.194 0.19) 24.63% (0.062999999999999 0.06)
Both teams to score 56.75% (-0.585 -0.59)
Goals
Over 2.5Under 2.5
55.97% (-0.807 -0.81)44.03% (0.811 0.81)
Over 3.5Under 3.5
33.59% (-0.792 -0.79)66.41% (0.79600000000001 0.8)
Benfica Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
83.05% (-0.38500000000001 -0.39)16.95% (0.389 0.39)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
52.96% (-0.694 -0.69)47.04% (0.697 0.7)
Braga Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
68.33% (-0.384 -0.38)31.67% (0.388 0.39)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
31.91% (-0.443 -0.44)68.09% (0.447 0.45)
Score Analysis
    Benfica 52.01%
    Braga 24.63%
    Draw 23.35%
BenficaDrawBraga
2-1 @ 9.72% (-0.011000000000001 -0.01)
1-0 @ 9.53% (0.213 0.21)
2-0 @ 8.46% (0.08 0.08)
3-1 @ 5.75% (-0.082 -0.08)
3-0 @ 5% (-0.016999999999999 -0.02)
3-2 @ 3.31% (-0.082 -0.08)
4-1 @ 2.55% (-0.07 -0.07)
4-0 @ 2.22% (-0.037 -0.04)
4-2 @ 1.47% (-0.057 -0.06)
5-1 @ 0.91% (-0.037 -0.04)
Other @ 3.1%
Total : 52.01%
1-1 @ 10.95% (0.13 0.13)
2-2 @ 5.59% (-0.066 -0.07)
0-0 @ 5.37% (0.188 0.19)
3-3 @ 1.27% (-0.046 -0.05)
Other @ 0.18%
Total : 23.35%
1-2 @ 6.3% (0.008 0.01)
0-1 @ 6.17% (0.151 0.15)
0-2 @ 3.55% (0.05 0.05)
1-3 @ 2.41% (-0.023 -0.02)
2-3 @ 2.14% (-0.048 -0.05)
0-3 @ 1.36% (0.0050000000000001 0.01)
Other @ 2.7%
Total : 24.63%

How you voted: Benfica vs Braga

Benfica
71.7%
Draw
13.2%
Braga
15.1%
53
Head to Head
Dec 17, 2023 8.30pm
Gameweek 14
Braga
0-1
Benfica

Saatci (26'), Fonte (76'), Carvalho (90+4')
Tengstedt (3')
Morato (2'), Trubin (89'), Otamendi (90+5')
> Preview
May 6, 2023 8.30pm
Gameweek 31
Benfica
1-0
Braga
Silva (67')
> Preview
Feb 9, 2023 8.30pm
Quarter-Finals
Braga
1-1
Benfica
 Braga win 5-4 on penalties
Elmusrati (36')
Guedes (15')
> Preview
Dec 30, 2022 9.15pm
Gameweek 14
Braga
3-0
Benfica
Ruiz (2'), Horta (32', 70')
> Preview
Apr 1, 2022 8.15pm
Gameweek 28
Braga
3-2
Benfica
Medeiros (28'), Horta (59'), Oliveira (79')
Ruiz (8'), Elmusrati (30')
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Vertonghen (26')
> Preview
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