Taca de Portugal | Round of 16
Jan 10, 2024 at 8.45pm UK
Estadio do Sport Lisboa e Benfica
Benfica3 - 2Braga
Form, Standings, Stats
Last Game: Arouca 0-3 Benfica
Saturday, January 6 at 6pm in Primeira Liga
Saturday, January 6 at 6pm in Primeira Liga
Last Game: Braga 1-1 Guimaraes
Saturday, January 6 at 8.30pm in Primeira Liga
Saturday, January 6 at 8.30pm in Primeira Liga
We said: Benfica 2-1 Braga
There has been little to separate Benfica and Braga in recent meetings, and another tightly-contested contest is set to be played out on Wednesday between two teams who will have confidence in their own abilities to secure the result that they need to advance to the quarter-finals. The absence of top scorer Banza is a blow for Braga, and they may find it difficult to outscore an in-form Benfica outfit who have found the net 14 times in their last five matches. Read more.Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Benfica win with a probability of 52.01%. A win for Braga had a probability of 24.63% and a draw had a probability of 23.4%.
The most likely scoreline for a Benfica win was 2-1 with a probability of 9.72%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (9.53%) and 2-0 (8.46%). The likeliest Braga win was 1-2 (6.3%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (10.95%). The actual scoreline of 3-2 was predicted with a 3.3% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Benfica would win this match.
| Result | ||
| Benfica | Draw | Braga |
52.01% ( -0.26) | 23.36% ( 0.19) | 24.63% ( 0.06) |
| Both teams to score 56.75% ( -0.59) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
