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World Cup
Colombia national football team
World Cup Qualifying - South America | Group Stage
Oct 15, 2024 at 9.30pm UK
Estadio Metropolitano Roberto Melendez
Chile national football team

Colombia
4 - 0
Chile

Sanchez (34'), Diaz (52'), Duran (82'), Sinisterra (90+3')
Cordoba (37'), Mojica (78')
FT(HT: 1-0)

Tapia (65'), Pulgar (77')

The Match

Preview

Sports Mole previews Tuesday's World Cup Qualifying - South America clash between Colombia and Chile, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

Form, Standings, Stats

Colombia

All competitions
World Cup Qualifying
Last Game: Bolivia 1-0 Colombia
Thursday, October 10 at 9pm in World Cup Qualifying - South America

Chile

All competitions
World Cup Qualifying
Last Game: Chile 1-2 Brazil
Friday, October 11 at 1am in World Cup Qualifying - South America

We said: Colombia 2-0 Chile

 After a treacherous trip to Bolivia, Colombia will be glad of the home comforts in Barranquilla and should bounce back to maintain their spot in the top two. Slipping to the foot of the standings will demoralise Chile even more after what was already a gut-wrenching defeat late on against Brazil, and they are set to struggle again against one of South America's finest outfits. Read more.

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Colombia win with a probability of 55.29%. A draw had a probability of 25.9% and a win for Chile had a probability of 18.86%.

The most likely scoreline for a Colombia win was 1-0 with a probability of 15.35%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (11.72%) and 2-1 (9.03%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (11.82%), while for a Chile win it was 0-1 (7.75%). The actual scoreline of 4-0 was predicted with a 2.3% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Colombia would win this match.

Result
ColombiaDrawChile
55.29% (-0.118 -0.12) 25.85% (0.116 0.12) 18.86% (-0.0060000000000002 -0.01)
Both teams to score 42.03% (-0.299 -0.3)
Goals
Over 2.5Under 2.5
40.3% (-0.393 -0.39)59.69% (0.385 0.38)
Over 3.5Under 3.5
19.99% (-0.303 -0.3)80% (0.295 0.3)
Colombia Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
78.27% (-0.214 -0.21)21.73% (0.206 0.21)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
45.1% (-0.322 -0.32)54.9% (0.316 0.32)
Chile Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
53.7% (-0.239 -0.24)46.3% (0.231 0.23)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
18.05% (-0.186 -0.19)81.95% (0.18000000000001 0.18)
Score Analysis
    Colombia 55.28%
    Chile 18.86%
    Draw 25.85%
ColombiaDrawChile
1-0 @ 15.35% (0.13 0.13)
2-0 @ 11.72% (0.030000000000001 0.03)
2-1 @ 9.03% (-0.040000000000001 -0.04)
3-0 @ 5.96% (-0.024999999999999 -0.02)
3-1 @ 4.59% (-0.049 -0.05)
4-0 @ 2.28% (-0.024 -0.02)
3-2 @ 1.77% (-0.031 -0.03)
4-1 @ 1.75% (-0.03 -0.03)
Other @ 2.83%
Total : 55.28%
1-1 @ 11.82% (0.02 0.02)
0-0 @ 10.06% (0.146 0.15)
2-2 @ 3.48% (-0.038 -0.04)
Other @ 0.49%
Total : 25.85%
0-1 @ 7.75% (0.063000000000001 0.06)
1-2 @ 4.55% (-0.021 -0.02)
0-2 @ 2.98% (0.004 0)
1-3 @ 1.17% (-0.013 -0.01)
Other @ 2.4%
Total : 18.86%

How you voted: Colombia vs Chile

Colombia
86.2%
Draw
8.0%
Chile
5.8%
138
Head to Head
Sep 13, 2023 1.30am
Group Stage
Chile
0-0
Colombia
Catalan (39')
Arias (41'), Carrascal (48'), Diaz (54'), Machado (64'), Duran (90')
> Preview
Sep 10, 2021 12am
Group Stage
Colombia
3-1
Chile
Borja (19' pen., 20'), Diaz (74')
Quintero (66')
Meneses (56')
Vidal (30'), Pulgar (68'), Diaz (85')
> Preview
Oct 14, 2020 1.30am
Group Stage
Chile
2-2
Colombia
Vidal (37' pen.), Sanchez (41')
Lerma (6'), Falcao (90+1')
Oct 12, 2019 5pm
International Friendlies
Colombia
0-0
Chile
Cuadrado (50')
Parot (43'), Vidal (73'), Isla (79'), Rubio (83')
Jun 29, 2019 12.20am
Quarter-Finals
Colombia
0-0
Chile
> Match Report
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