Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Sporting Lisbon win with a probability of 84.62%. A draw had a probability of 10.6% and a win for Casa Pia had a probability of 4.81%.
The most likely scoreline for a Sporting Lisbon win was 2-0 with a probability of 12.35%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 3-0 (12.24%) and 4-0 (9.1%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (5.02%), while for a Casa Pia win it was 0-1 (1.69%). The actual scoreline of 8-0 was predicted with a 0.4% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Sporting Lisbon would win this match.