Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Marseille win with a probability of 47.77%. A win for Saint-Etienne had a probability of 26.64% and a draw had a probability of 25.6%.
The most likely scoreline for a Marseille win was 0-1 with a probability of 11.35%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (9.29%) and 0-2 (8.67%). The likeliest Saint-Etienne win was 1-0 (7.97%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.17%). The actual scoreline of 0-2 was predicted with an 8.7% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Marseille would win this match.
Result | ||
Saint-Etienne | Draw | Marseille |
26.64% ( -0.08) | 25.59% ( 0.13) | 47.77% ( -0.06) |
Both teams to score 51.49% ( -0.47) |
Goals |
Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
48.13% ( -0.58) | 51.86% ( 0.58) |
Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
26.38% ( -0.51) | 73.62% ( 0.51) |
Saint-Etienne Goals |
Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
65.77% ( -0.37) | 34.22% ( 0.37) |
Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
29.07% ( -0.4) | 70.92% ( 0.4) |
Marseille Goals |
Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
78.28% ( -0.27) | 21.72% ( 0.27) |
Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
45.12% ( -0.41) | 54.88% ( 0.41) |
Score Analysis |
Saint-Etienne | Draw | Marseille |
1-0 @ 7.97% ( 0.1) 2-1 @ 6.52% ( -0.03) 2-0 @ 4.27% ( 0.01) 3-1 @ 2.33% ( -0.04) 3-2 @ 1.78% ( -0.04) 3-0 @ 1.53% ( -0.01) Other @ 2.23% Total : 26.64% | 1-1 @ 12.17% ( 0.07) 0-0 @ 7.43% ( 0.17) 2-2 @ 4.98% ( -0.07) 3-3 @ 0.91% ( -0.03) Other @ 0.1% Total : 25.59% | 0-1 @ 11.35% ( 0.18) 1-2 @ 9.29% ( -0.03) 0-2 @ 8.67% ( 0.06) 1-3 @ 4.73% ( -0.05) 0-3 @ 4.41% ( -0) 2-3 @ 2.54% ( -0.05) 1-4 @ 1.81% ( -0.03) 0-4 @ 1.68% ( -0.02) 2-4 @ 0.97% ( -0.03) Other @ 2.33% Total : 47.77% |
Team | P | W | D | L | F | A | GD | PTS | |
1 | Paris Saint-GermainPSG | 16 | 12 | 4 | 0 | 44 | 14 | 30 | 40 |
2 | Marseille | 15 | 9 | 3 | 3 | 32 | 18 | 14 | 30 |
3 | MonacoMonaco | 16 | 9 | 3 | 4 | 26 | 16 | 10 | 30 |
4 | Lille | 15 | 7 | 6 | 2 | 25 | 15 | 10 | 27 |
5 | Lyon | 15 | 7 | 4 | 4 | 27 | 20 | 7 | 25 |
6 | Nice | 15 | 6 | 6 | 3 | 28 | 19 | 9 | 24 |
7 | Lens | 15 | 6 | 6 | 3 | 19 | 14 | 5 | 24 |
8 | Auxerre | 15 | 6 | 3 | 6 | 23 | 23 | 0 | 21 |
9 | Toulouse | 15 | 6 | 3 | 6 | 17 | 17 | 0 | 21 |
10 | Reims | 15 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 20 | 18 | 2 | 20 |
11 | Brest | 15 | 6 | 1 | 8 | 24 | 27 | -3 | 19 |
12 | Rennes | 15 | 5 | 2 | 8 | 20 | 20 | 0 | 17 |
13 | StrasbourgStrasbourg | 15 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 25 | 27 | -2 | 17 |
14 | NantesNantes | 15 | 3 | 5 | 7 | 17 | 24 | -7 | 14 |
15 | Angers | 15 | 3 | 4 | 8 | 14 | 26 | -12 | 13 |
16 | Saint-EtienneSt Etienne | 15 | 4 | 1 | 10 | 12 | 34 | -22 | 13 |
17 | Le HavreLe Havre | 15 | 4 | 0 | 11 | 11 | 29 | -18 | 12 |
18 | Montpellier HSCMontpellier | 15 | 2 | 3 | 10 | 15 | 38 | -23 | 9 |
> Ligue 1 Full Table |