Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Lokomotiv Moscow win with a probability of 48.11%. A draw had a probability of 26.6% and a win for Arsenal Tula had a probability of 25.29%.
The most likely scoreline for a Lokomotiv Moscow win was 1-0 with a probability of 12.93%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (9.34%) and 2-1 (9.05%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (12.52%), while for an Arsenal Tula win it was 0-1 (8.67%). The actual scoreline of 1-0 was predicted with a 12.9% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted a 1-0 win for Lokomotiv Moscow in this match.