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Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a FC Utrecht win with a probability of 50%. A win for Fortuna Sittard had a probability of 26.96% and a draw had a probability of 23%.
The most likely scoreline for a FC Utrecht win was 2-1 with a probability of 9.56%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (8.31%) and 2-0 (7.51%). The likeliest Fortuna Sittard win was 1-2 (6.72%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (10.56%). The actual scoreline of 4-0 was predicted with a 2% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that FC Utrecht would win this match.
Result | ||
FC Utrecht | Draw | Fortuna Sittard |
50% ( 0.14) | 23.04% ( 0.04) | 26.96% ( -0.17) |
Both teams to score 60.18% ( -0.28) |
Goals |
Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
59.46% ( -0.31) | 40.54% ( 0.32) |
Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
37.08% ( -0.32) | 62.92% ( 0.33) |
FC Utrecht Goals |
Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
83.6% ( -0.07) | 16.4% ( 0.07) |
Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
53.96% ( -0.12) | 46.04% ( 0.13) |
Fortuna Sittard Goals |
Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
71.98% ( -0.28) | 28.02% ( 0.29) |
Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
36.33% ( -0.37) | 63.67% ( 0.37) |
Score Analysis |
FC Utrecht | Draw | Fortuna Sittard |
2-1 @ 9.56% ( 0.02) 1-0 @ 8.31% ( 0.1) 2-0 @ 7.51% ( 0.07) 3-1 @ 5.76% ( -0) 3-0 @ 4.53% ( 0.03) 3-2 @ 3.66% ( -0.03) 4-1 @ 2.6% ( -0.01) 4-0 @ 2.05% ( 0.01) 4-2 @ 1.66% ( -0.02) 5-1 @ 0.94% ( -0) Other @ 3.43% Total : 50% | 1-1 @ 10.56% ( 0.04) 2-2 @ 6.08% ( -0.04) 0-0 @ 4.59% ( 0.07) 3-3 @ 1.55% ( -0.03) Other @ 0.25% Total : 23.03% | 1-2 @ 6.72% ( -0.03) 0-1 @ 5.84% ( 0.04) 0-2 @ 3.72% ( -0.01) 1-3 @ 2.85% ( -0.03) 2-3 @ 2.58% ( -0.04) 0-3 @ 1.58% ( -0.02) 1-4 @ 0.91% ( -0.02) Other @ 2.76% Total : 26.96% |
Team | P | W | D | L | F | A | GD | PTS | |
1 | PSV EindhovenPSV | 19 | 15 | 1 | 3 | 62 | 18 | 44 | 46 |
2 | Ajax | 19 | 14 | 3 | 2 | 41 | 17 | 24 | 45 |
3 | FC UtrechtUtrecht | 19 | 12 | 4 | 3 | 36 | 29 | 7 | 40 |
4 | Feyenoord | 19 | 10 | 6 | 3 | 42 | 24 | 18 | 36 |
5 | FC Twente | 19 | 10 | 4 | 5 | 39 | 25 | 14 | 34 |
6 | AZ AlkmaarAZ | 19 | 10 | 4 | 5 | 33 | 19 | 14 | 34 |
7 | Go Ahead Eagles | 19 | 9 | 4 | 6 | 35 | 28 | 7 | 31 |
8 | Fortuna SittardSittard | 19 | 7 | 4 | 8 | 26 | 32 | -6 | 25 |
9 | NAC BredaNAC Breda | 19 | 8 | 1 | 10 | 23 | 32 | -9 | 25 |
10 | Heerenveen | 19 | 7 | 3 | 9 | 21 | 35 | -14 | 24 |
11 | NECNijmegen | 19 | 7 | 2 | 10 | 28 | 25 | 3 | 23 |
12 | Willem II | 19 | 6 | 5 | 8 | 24 | 26 | -2 | 23 |
13 | PEC Zwolle | 19 | 5 | 5 | 9 | 19 | 28 | -9 | 20 |
14 | Heracles | 18 | 4 | 6 | 8 | 21 | 34 | -13 | 18 |
15 | Groningen | 18 | 4 | 5 | 9 | 15 | 28 | -13 | 17 |
16 | Sparta RotterdamSparta | 19 | 2 | 8 | 9 | 16 | 28 | -12 | 14 |
17 | Almere CityAlmere City | 19 | 2 | 4 | 13 | 10 | 39 | -29 | 10 |
18 | RKC WaalwijkRKC Waalwijk | 19 | 1 | 5 | 13 | 20 | 44 | -24 | 8 |
> Eredivisie Full Table |