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Ajax
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Groningen
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PSV
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Willem II
PSV
Eredivisie | Gameweek 17
Jan 13, 2024 at 8pm UK
Philips Stadion
Excelsior

PSV
3 - 1
Excelsior

de Jong (13', 17', 69')
FT(HT: 2-0)

The Match

Preview

Sports Mole previews Saturday's Eredivisie clash between PSV Eindhoven and SBV Excelsior, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

Form, Standings, Stats

Last Game: PSV 1-1 Hamburger SV
Sunday, January 7 at 3.30pm in Club Friendlies 1
Last Game: Spakenburg 2-3 Excelsior
Tuesday, December 19 at 7pm in KNVB Beker

We said: PSV Eindhoven 3-0 SBV Excelsior

Excelsior scraped a narrow cup win last time out and are in for another tough 90 minutes against a high-flying PSV side. Bosz's men have been utterly dominant in the history of this fixture, and given the gulf in quality and experience between the two sides, we are backing the hosts to come away with all three points unscathed. Read more.

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a PSV Eindhoven win with a probability of 76.54%. A draw had a probability of 13.7% and a win for SBV Excelsior had a probability of 9.81%.

The most likely scoreline for a PSV Eindhoven win was 2-0 with a probability of 8.58%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (8.48%) and 3-0 (8.33%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (5.82%), while for a SBV Excelsior win it was 1-2 (2.88%). The actual scoreline of 3-1 was predicted with an 8.2% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that PSV Eindhoven would win this match.

Result
PSV EindhovenDrawSBV Excelsior
76.54% (-0.642 -0.64) 13.65% (0.435 0.44) 9.81% (0.2161 0.22)
Both teams to score 59.38% (-1.165 -1.17)
Goals
Over 2.5Under 2.5
74.7% (-1.649 -1.65)25.3% (1.656 1.66)
Over 3.5Under 3.5
54.69% (-2.175 -2.18)45.31% (2.183 2.18)
PSV Eindhoven Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
94.56% (-0.43600000000001 -0.44)5.44% (0.4439 0.44)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
78.73% (-1.302 -1.3)21.27% (1.31 1.31)
SBV Excelsior Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
62.79% (-0.933 -0.93)37.21% (0.941 0.94)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
26.01% (-0.933 -0.93)73.99% (0.94199999999999 0.94)
Score Analysis
    PSV Eindhoven 76.54%
    SBV Excelsior 9.81%
    Draw 13.65%
PSV EindhovenDrawSBV Excelsior
2-0 @ 8.58% (0.443 0.44)
2-1 @ 8.48% (0.229 0.23)
3-0 @ 8.33% (0.199 0.2)
3-1 @ 8.23% (-0.0099999999999998 -0.01)
4-0 @ 6.06% (-0.027 -0.03)
4-1 @ 5.99% (-0.183 -0.18)
1-0 @ 5.89% (0.463 0.46)
3-2 @ 4.07% (-0.11 -0.11)
5-0 @ 3.53% (-0.119 -0.12)
5-1 @ 3.49% (-0.211 -0.21)
4-2 @ 2.96% (-0.169 -0.17)
5-2 @ 1.73% (-0.152 -0.15)
6-0 @ 1.71% (-0.11 -0.11)
6-1 @ 1.69% (-0.155 -0.16)
4-3 @ 0.98% (-0.083 -0.08)
Other @ 4.83%
Total : 76.54%
1-1 @ 5.82% (0.319 0.32)
2-2 @ 4.19% (0.0090000000000003 0.01)
0-0 @ 2.02% (0.212 0.21)
3-3 @ 1.34% (-0.072 -0.07)
Other @ 0.27%
Total : 13.65%
1-2 @ 2.88% (0.087 0.09)
0-1 @ 2% (0.163 0.16)
2-3 @ 1.38% (-0.033 -0.03)
0-2 @ 0.99% (0.057 0.06)
1-3 @ 0.95% (0.005 0.01)
Other @ 1.61%
Total : 9.81%

How you voted: PSV vs Excelsior

PSV Eindhoven
83.3%
Draw
5.6%
SBV Excelsior
11.1%
18
Head to Head
Apr 8, 2023 7pm
Gameweek 28
PSV
4-0
Excelsior
De Jong (12'), Simons (78'), Silva (82'), Gutierrez (87')
Aug 28, 2022 1.30pm
Gameweek 4
Excelsior
1-6
PSV
Horemans (74')
Veerman (2'), Sangare (29', 45'), Simons (55', 84'), Gakpo (59')
Til (68')
Mar 2, 2019 6.45pm
Gameweek 24
Excelsior
0-2
PSV
Bergwijn (8', 54')
Lozano (24')
Dec 7, 2018 7.45pm
Gameweek 15
PSV
6-0
Excelsior
De Jong (17', 92'), Van der Meer (34' og.), Mattheij (52' og.), Malen (80'), Bergwijn (89')
Sainsbury (60')

Bruins (55'), van der Meer (64'), El Hamdaoui (67')
Feb 7, 2018 5.30pm
PSV
1-0
Excelsior
Lozano (17')
Brenet (69'), Bergwijn (76')

Fortes (42'), Mattheij (69'), Vermeulen (82')
rhs 2.0
Today's games header
Tables header RHS
TeamPWDLFAGDPTS
1PSV EindhovenPSV21162368234550
2Ajax20153243182548
3FC UtrechtUtrecht2112634033742
4Feyenoord20106443261736
5FC Twente20105541271435
6AZ AlkmaarAZ20104634211334
7Go Ahead Eagles209563730732
8Fortuna SittardSittard217592938-926
9NAC BredaNAC Breda2182112636-1026
10Heerenveen2174102338-1525
11NECNijmegen2073103128324
12PEC Zwolle216692632-624
13Willem II206592428-423
14Heracles214982437-1321
15Groningen2156101730-1321
16Sparta RotterdamSparta214891929-1020
17RKC WaalwijkRKC Waalwijk2135132645-1914
18Almere CityAlmere City2024141143-3210


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