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Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a PSV Eindhoven win with a probability of 76.54%. A draw had a probability of 13.7% and a win for SBV Excelsior had a probability of 9.81%.
The most likely scoreline for a PSV Eindhoven win was 2-0 with a probability of 8.58%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (8.48%) and 3-0 (8.33%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (5.82%), while for a SBV Excelsior win it was 1-2 (2.88%). The actual scoreline of 3-1 was predicted with an 8.2% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that PSV Eindhoven would win this match.
Result | ||
PSV Eindhoven | Draw | SBV Excelsior |
76.54% ( -0.64) | 13.65% ( 0.44) | 9.81% ( 0.22) |
Both teams to score 59.38% ( -1.17) |
Goals |
Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
74.7% ( -1.65) | 25.3% ( 1.66) |
Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
54.69% ( -2.18) | 45.31% ( 2.18) |
PSV Eindhoven Goals |
Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
94.56% ( -0.44) | 5.44% ( 0.44) |
Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
78.73% ( -1.3) | 21.27% ( 1.31) |
SBV Excelsior Goals |
Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
62.79% ( -0.93) | 37.21% ( 0.94) |
Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
26.01% ( -0.93) | 73.99% ( 0.94) |
Score Analysis |
PSV Eindhoven | Draw | SBV Excelsior |
2-0 @ 8.58% ( 0.44) 2-1 @ 8.48% ( 0.23) 3-0 @ 8.33% ( 0.2) 3-1 @ 8.23% ( -0.01) 4-0 @ 6.06% ( -0.03) 4-1 @ 5.99% ( -0.18) 1-0 @ 5.89% ( 0.46) 3-2 @ 4.07% ( -0.11) 5-0 @ 3.53% ( -0.12) 5-1 @ 3.49% ( -0.21) 4-2 @ 2.96% ( -0.17) 5-2 @ 1.73% ( -0.15) 6-0 @ 1.71% ( -0.11) 6-1 @ 1.69% ( -0.16) 4-3 @ 0.98% ( -0.08) Other @ 4.83% Total : 76.54% | 1-1 @ 5.82% ( 0.32) 2-2 @ 4.19% ( 0.01) 0-0 @ 2.02% ( 0.21) 3-3 @ 1.34% ( -0.07) Other @ 0.27% Total : 13.65% | 1-2 @ 2.88% ( 0.09) 0-1 @ 2% ( 0.16) 2-3 @ 1.38% ( -0.03) 0-2 @ 0.99% ( 0.06) 1-3 @ 0.95% ( 0.01) Other @ 1.61% Total : 9.81% |
Team | P | W | D | L | F | A | GD | PTS | |
1 | PSV EindhovenPSV | 16 | 14 | 0 | 2 | 56 | 13 | 43 | 42 |
2 | Ajax | 16 | 11 | 3 | 2 | 35 | 16 | 19 | 36 |
3 | FC UtrechtUtrecht | 16 | 11 | 3 | 2 | 32 | 23 | 9 | 36 |
4 | Feyenoord | 16 | 10 | 5 | 1 | 40 | 18 | 22 | 35 |
5 | FC Twente | 16 | 9 | 4 | 3 | 32 | 20 | 12 | 31 |
6 | AZ AlkmaarAZ | 16 | 9 | 2 | 5 | 30 | 17 | 13 | 29 |
7 | Go Ahead Eagles | 16 | 6 | 4 | 6 | 28 | 26 | 2 | 22 |
8 | Fortuna SittardSittard | 16 | 6 | 4 | 6 | 20 | 23 | -3 | 22 |
9 | NAC BredaNAC Breda | 16 | 7 | 1 | 8 | 18 | 25 | -7 | 22 |
10 | Heerenveen | 16 | 6 | 3 | 7 | 17 | 28 | -11 | 21 |
11 | Willem II | 16 | 5 | 4 | 7 | 17 | 18 | -1 | 19 |
12 | NECNijmegen | 16 | 5 | 2 | 9 | 22 | 20 | 2 | 17 |
13 | PEC Zwolle | 17 | 4 | 5 | 8 | 16 | 26 | -10 | 17 |
14 | Groningen | 16 | 4 | 4 | 8 | 14 | 26 | -12 | 16 |
15 | Heracles | 16 | 3 | 5 | 8 | 18 | 33 | -15 | 14 |
16 | Sparta RotterdamSparta | 16 | 2 | 6 | 8 | 14 | 24 | -10 | 12 |
17 | RKC WaalwijkRKC Waalwijk | 17 | 1 | 4 | 12 | 18 | 41 | -23 | 7 |
18 | Almere CityAlmere City | 16 | 1 | 3 | 12 | 7 | 37 | -30 | 6 |
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