Having both picked up their first wins of the 2022 World Cup qualifying campaign last time out, Ethiopia and South Africa lock horns at the Bahir Dar Stadium on Saturday.
A win for either side this weekend would take them top of the group midway through the qualifiers, so there is plenty to play for in this one.
Match preview
South Africa got their qualifying journey up and running with a 1-0 victory over the Black Stars of Ghana at the First National Bank Stadium on September 6.
Bongokuhle Hlongwane was the match winner for Hugo Broos's men in Johannesburg, netting in the 83rd minute to hand his side all three points.
The Bafana Bafana currently lead the way in Group G following that victory and are now unbeaten in 10 of 11 outings since the turn of the year.
Standing in their way next is an opposing side who are yet to taste defeat in any of the three meetings between the teams dating back to 2012.
Having suffered a 2-1 defeat on their last visit to this weekend's hosts eight years ago, the away side will be keen to come out on top this time around.
Off the back of an opening-day 1-0 defeat to Ghana on September 3, Ethiopia bounced back in next to no time with a 1-0 win over Zimbabwe four days later.
With the contest level heading into second-half stoppage time, an Aschalew Tamene penalty in the 95th minute got the job done for Wubetu Abate's men.
The East Africans have now emerged victorious in their last four games on home turf while keeping clean sheets in each of the last three.
Saturday's hosts will hope to maintain that defensive solidity against an opposing outfit who have several attacking weapons in their arsenal.
- L
- W
- L
- W
- W
- L
- L
- W
- D
- W
- W
- D
- W
- W
- D
- W
Team News
Bongokuhle Hlongwane has found the back of the net in two of his first four appearances for the visitors and the 21-year-old is poised to continue this fine run of form.
Twenty-three-year-old Terrence Mashego was called up to the national team for the first time following his impressive performances at club level.
To the discontent of the Mamelodi Sundowns manager Manqoba Mngqithi, Lyle Lakay has failed to earn a place in Broos's squad once again despite proving to be a real attacking threat with three assists so far.
Getaneh Kebede has scored more goals for Ethiopia than any other player in history and will be heavily relied upon to provide the cutting edge.
Kebede is expected to be joined up front by the duo of Amanuel Gebremichael and Abubeker Nasir who currently ply their trade in the hosts' local league.
Ethiopia possible starting lineup:
F. Gebremichael; Tonjo, Baye, Tamene, Yesuf; Endeshaw, Mohammed, Bekele; Nasir, Kebede, A. Gebremichael
South Africa possible starting lineup:
Williams; Morena, Xulu, De Reuck, Mobbie; Mvala, Tau, Mokoena, Brooks, Hlongwane; Makgopa
We say: Ethiopia 1-2 South Africa
Both teams have an opportunity to take control of proceedings and we expect a keenly-contested battle in this one. The away side have more firepower in attack, and we fancy them to just edge their hosts by a narrow margin.
Top tip
Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Ethiopia win with a probability of 38.93%. A win for South Africa had a probability of 30.9% and a draw had a probability of 30.2%.
The most likely scoreline for a Ethiopia win was 1-0 with a probability of 14.1%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (7.82%) and 2-1 (7.45%). The likeliest South Africa win was 0-1 (12.13%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (13.44%). The actual scoreline of 1-3 was predicted with a 2% likelihood.
