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Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Burnley win with a probability of 50.97%. A win for Derby County had a probability of 24.72% and a draw had a probability of 24.3%.
The most likely scoreline for a Burnley win was 1-0 with a probability of 10.64%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (9.62%) and 2-0 (8.87%). The likeliest Derby County win was 0-1 (6.92%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.54%). The actual scoreline of 0-0 was predicted with a 6.4% likelihood.
Result | ||
Burnley | Draw | Derby County |
50.97% ( -1.06) | 24.31% ( 0.15) | 24.72% ( 0.91) |
Both teams to score 53.7% ( 0.53) |
Goals |
Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
51.89% ( 0.23) | 48.11% ( -0.23) |
Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
29.73% ( 0.21) | 70.27% ( -0.21) |
Burnley Goals |
Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
81.12% ( -0.33) | 18.88% ( 0.32) |
Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
49.64% ( -0.54) | 50.36% ( 0.54) |
Derby County Goals |
Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
66.19% ( 0.91) | 33.81% ( -0.91) |
Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
29.53% ( 0.98) | 70.47% ( -0.98) |
Score Analysis |
Burnley | Draw | Derby County |
1-0 @ 10.64% ( -0.21) 2-1 @ 9.62% ( -0.05) 2-0 @ 8.87% ( -0.27) 3-1 @ 5.34% ( -0.08) 3-0 @ 4.93% ( -0.2) 3-2 @ 2.9% ( 0.03) 4-1 @ 2.23% ( -0.06) 4-0 @ 2.05% ( -0.11) 4-2 @ 1.21% ( -0) Other @ 3.18% Total : 50.97% | 1-1 @ 11.54% ( 0.06) 0-0 @ 6.38% ( -0.06) 2-2 @ 5.22% ( 0.1) 3-3 @ 1.05% ( 0.04) Other @ 0.13% Total : 24.32% | 0-1 @ 6.92% ( 0.11) 1-2 @ 6.26% ( 0.19) 0-2 @ 3.75% ( 0.15) 1-3 @ 2.26% ( 0.12) 2-3 @ 1.89% ( 0.08) 0-3 @ 1.36% ( 0.09) Other @ 2.28% Total : 24.72% |
Team | P | W | D | L | F | A | GD | PTS | |
1 | Leeds UnitedLeeds | 26 | 15 | 8 | 3 | 48 | 19 | 29 | 53 |
2 | Burnley | 26 | 14 | 10 | 2 | 31 | 9 | 22 | 52 |
3 | Sheffield UnitedSheff Utd | 26 | 16 | 6 | 4 | 36 | 17 | 19 | 52 |
4 | Sunderland | 26 | 14 | 8 | 4 | 39 | 22 | 17 | 50 |
5 | Middlesbrough | 26 | 11 | 8 | 7 | 43 | 32 | 11 | 41 |
6 | West Bromwich AlbionWest Brom | 26 | 9 | 13 | 4 | 32 | 21 | 11 | 40 |
7 | Blackburn RoversBlackburn | 25 | 11 | 6 | 8 | 28 | 23 | 5 | 39 |
8 | Bristol City | 26 | 9 | 10 | 7 | 33 | 30 | 3 | 37 |
9 | Watford | 25 | 11 | 4 | 10 | 35 | 36 | -1 | 37 |
10 | Sheffield WednesdaySheff Weds | 26 | 10 | 7 | 9 | 38 | 40 | -2 | 37 |
11 | Norwich CityNorwich | 26 | 9 | 9 | 8 | 43 | 37 | 6 | 36 |
12 | Swansea CitySwansea | 26 | 9 | 7 | 10 | 30 | 30 | 0 | 34 |
13 | Queens Park RangersQPR | 26 | 7 | 11 | 8 | 29 | 34 | -5 | 32 |
14 | Millwall | 25 | 7 | 9 | 9 | 24 | 23 | 1 | 30 |
15 | Preston North EndPreston | 26 | 6 | 12 | 8 | 28 | 34 | -6 | 30 |
16 | Coventry CityCoventry | 26 | 7 | 8 | 11 | 34 | 37 | -3 | 29 |
17 | Oxford UnitedOxford Utd | 25 | 7 | 7 | 11 | 28 | 40 | -12 | 28 |
18 | Derby CountyDerby | 26 | 7 | 6 | 13 | 31 | 35 | -4 | 27 |
19 | Stoke CityStoke | 26 | 6 | 9 | 11 | 24 | 32 | -8 | 27 |
20 | Luton TownLuton | 26 | 7 | 4 | 15 | 27 | 44 | -17 | 25 |
21 | Portsmouth | 24 | 5 | 8 | 11 | 30 | 41 | -11 | 23 |
22 | Hull City | 26 | 5 | 8 | 13 | 25 | 36 | -11 | 23 |
23 | Cardiff CityCardiff | 25 | 5 | 8 | 12 | 25 | 40 | -15 | 23 |
24 | Plymouth ArgylePlymouth | 25 | 4 | 8 | 13 | 24 | 53 | -29 | 20 |
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