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Championship | Gameweek 20
Dec 10, 2024 at 7.45pm UK
Turf Moor
Derby logo

Burnley
0 - 0
Derby


Brownhill (80')
FT

Ward (48'), Widell Zetterstrom (88')

The Match

Preview

Sports Mole previews Tuesday's Championship clash between Burnley and Derby County, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

Form, Standings, Stats

Last Game: Burnley 1-1 Middlesbrough
Friday, December 6 at 8pm in Championship
Last Game: Leeds 2-0 Derby
Saturday, December 7 at 12.30pm in Championship

We said: Burnley 2-0 Derby County

Burnley are undoubtedly the favourites heading into this match, with the home advantage and better form on their side, leading us to believe they will secure a commanding victory. Read more.

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Burnley win with a probability of 50.97%. A win for Derby County had a probability of 24.72% and a draw had a probability of 24.3%.

The most likely scoreline for a Burnley win was 1-0 with a probability of 10.64%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (9.62%) and 2-0 (8.87%). The likeliest Derby County win was 0-1 (6.92%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.54%). The actual scoreline of 0-0 was predicted with a 6.4% likelihood.

Result
BurnleyDrawDerby County
50.97% (-1.056 -1.06) 24.31% (0.145 0.15) 24.72% (0.911 0.91)
Both teams to score 53.7% (0.53 0.53)
Goals
Over 2.5Under 2.5
51.89% (0.22600000000001 0.23)48.11% (-0.22600000000001 -0.23)
Over 3.5Under 3.5
29.73% (0.207 0.21)70.27% (-0.208 -0.21)
Burnley Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
81.12% (-0.325 -0.33)18.88% (0.323 0.32)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
49.64% (-0.54499999999999 -0.54)50.36% (0.54499999999999 0.54)
Derby County Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
66.19% (0.914 0.91)33.81% (-0.915 -0.91)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
29.53% (0.981 0.98)70.47% (-0.982 -0.98)
Score Analysis
    Burnley 50.97%
    Derby County 24.72%
    Draw 24.32%
BurnleyDrawDerby County
1-0 @ 10.64% (-0.21 -0.21)
2-1 @ 9.62% (-0.049999999999999 -0.05)
2-0 @ 8.87% (-0.271 -0.27)
3-1 @ 5.34% (-0.084 -0.08)
3-0 @ 4.93% (-0.203 -0.2)
3-2 @ 2.9% (0.027 0.03)
4-1 @ 2.23% (-0.059 -0.06)
4-0 @ 2.05% (-0.107 -0.11)
4-2 @ 1.21% (-0.0010000000000001 -0)
Other @ 3.18%
Total : 50.97%
1-1 @ 11.54% (0.059999999999999 0.06)
0-0 @ 6.38% (-0.06 -0.06)
2-2 @ 5.22% (0.103 0.1)
3-3 @ 1.05% (0.036 0.04)
Other @ 0.13%
Total : 24.32%
0-1 @ 6.92% (0.107 0.11)
1-2 @ 6.26% (0.186 0.19)
0-2 @ 3.75% (0.149 0.15)
1-3 @ 2.26% (0.121 0.12)
2-3 @ 1.89% (0.082 0.08)
0-3 @ 1.36% (0.086 0.09)
Other @ 2.28%
Total : 24.72%

How you voted: Burnley vs Derby

Burnley
80.7%
Draw
11.9%
Derby County
7.3%
109
Head to Head
Jan 25, 2016 7.45pm
Burnley
4-1
Derby
Keogh (29' og.), Gray (54' pen.), Vokes (58' pen.), Arfield (66')
Butterfield (30')
Shackell (57'), Johnson (68')
Sep 21, 2015 7.45pm
rhs 2.0
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Tables header RHS
TeamPWDLFAGDPTS
1Leeds UnitedLeeds26158348192953
2Burnley26141023192252
3Sheffield UnitedSheff Utd26166436171952
4Sunderland26148439221750
5Middlesbrough26118743321141
6West Bromwich AlbionWest Brom26913432211140
7Blackburn RoversBlackburn2511682823539
8Bristol City2691073330337
9Watford25114103536-137
10Sheffield WednesdaySheff Weds2610793840-237
11Norwich CityNorwich269984337636
12Swansea CitySwansea2697103030034
13Queens Park RangersQPR2671182934-532
14Millwall257992423130
15Preston North EndPreston2661282834-630
16Coventry CityCoventry2678113437-329
17Oxford UnitedOxford Utd2577112840-1228
18Derby CountyDerby2676133135-427
19Stoke CityStoke2669112432-827
20Luton TownLuton2674152744-1725
21Portsmouth2458113041-1123
22Hull City2658132536-1123
23Cardiff CityCardiff2558122540-1523
24Plymouth ArgylePlymouth2548132453-2920


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