Vitoria notched up their biggest win of the season against this opponent in the reverse fixture and are carrying solid form into this contest. They have also beaten Chaves in each of their last five encounters, outscoring them 13-1 in that time, and we feel they will add another three points to their tally in this one.
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Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Vitoria de Guimaraes win with a probability of 52.8%. A draw had a probability of 24.4% and a win for Chaves had a probability of 22.85%.
The most likely scoreline for a Vitoria de Guimaraes win was 0-1 with a probability of 11.5%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (9.65%) and 0-2 (9.58%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (11.58%), while for a Chaves win it was 1-0 (6.95%). The actual scoreline of 1-2 was predicted with a 9.6% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole correctly predicted a 1-2 win for Vitoria de Guimaraes in this match and our data analysis correctly predicted the win for Vitoria de Guimaraes.
1.19) 
-1.42) 
