We said: Lazio 2-0 Venezia
The last time these sides met, during the 2021-22 Serie A season, Lazio won both home and away, and Sunday's game should produce the same result: after Venezia suffered a shock cup loss last week, they will surely come up short at Stadio Olimpico.
Read more.Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Lazio win with a probability of 46.64%. A win for Venezia had a probability of 27.46% and a draw had a probability of 25.9%.
The most likely scoreline for a Lazio win was 1-0 with a probability of 11.39%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (9.18%) and 2-0 (8.49%). The likeliest Venezia win was 0-1 (8.26%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.31%). The actual scoreline of 3-1 was predicted with a 4.6% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Lazio would win this match.
0.06) 
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