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Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Leeds United win with a probability of 48.75%. A win for Leicester City had a probability of 28.51% and a draw had a probability of 22.7%.
The most likely scoreline for a Leeds United win was 2-1 with a probability of 9.38%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (7.48%) and 2-0 (6.88%). The likeliest Leicester City win was 1-2 (6.94%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (10.19%). The actual scoreline of 3-1 was predicted with a 5.8% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Leeds United would win this match.
Result | ||
Leeds United | Draw | Leicester City |
48.75% ( 0.02) | 22.73% ( 0.01) | 28.51% ( -0.03) |
Both teams to score 62.59% ( -0.05) |
Goals |
Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
62.07% ( -0.05) | 37.93% ( 0.05) |
Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
39.81% ( -0.06) | 60.18% ( 0.06) |
Leeds United Goals |
Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
84.12% ( -0.01) | 15.87% ( 0.01) |
Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
54.91% ( -0.02) | 45.09% ( 0.02) |
Leicester City Goals |
Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
74.4% ( -0.05) | 25.6% ( 0.05) |
Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
39.52% ( -0.06) | 60.48% ( 0.06) |
Score Analysis |
Leeds United | Draw | Leicester City |
2-1 @ 9.38% ( 0) 1-0 @ 7.48% ( 0.02) 2-0 @ 6.88% ( 0.01) 3-1 @ 5.75% 3-0 @ 4.22% ( 0.01) 3-2 @ 3.92% ( -0) 4-1 @ 2.65% ( -0) 4-0 @ 1.94% ( 0) 4-2 @ 1.8% ( -0) 5-1 @ 0.97% ( -0) Other @ 3.75% Total : 48.75% | 1-1 @ 10.19% ( 0.01) 2-2 @ 6.39% ( -0.01) 0-0 @ 4.06% ( 0.01) 3-3 @ 1.78% ( -0) Other @ 0.31% Total : 22.73% | 1-2 @ 6.94% ( -0) 0-1 @ 5.54% ( 0.01) 0-2 @ 3.77% 1-3 @ 3.15% ( -0.01) 2-3 @ 2.9% ( -0.01) 0-3 @ 1.71% ( -0) 1-4 @ 1.07% ( -0) 2-4 @ 0.99% ( -0) Other @ 2.43% Total : 28.51% |
Team | P | W | D | L | F | A | GD | PTS | |
1 | Sheffield UnitedSheff Utd | 16 | 10 | 4 | 2 | 21 | 9 | 12 | 32 |
2 | Sunderland | 15 | 9 | 4 | 2 | 25 | 11 | 14 | 31 |
3 | Burnley | 16 | 8 | 6 | 2 | 19 | 6 | 13 | 30 |
4 | Leeds UnitedLeeds | 15 | 8 | 5 | 2 | 24 | 9 | 15 | 29 |
5 | Middlesbrough | 16 | 8 | 3 | 5 | 29 | 19 | 10 | 27 |
6 | West Bromwich AlbionWest Brom | 16 | 6 | 8 | 2 | 18 | 11 | 7 | 26 |
7 | Watford | 16 | 8 | 2 | 6 | 25 | 24 | 1 | 26 |
8 | Millwall | 15 | 6 | 5 | 4 | 18 | 13 | 5 | 23 |
9 | Blackburn RoversBlackburn | 15 | 6 | 4 | 5 | 19 | 17 | 2 | 22 |
10 | Bristol City | 16 | 5 | 7 | 4 | 20 | 20 | 0 | 22 |
11 | Derby CountyDerby | 16 | 5 | 5 | 6 | 20 | 20 | 0 | 20 |
12 | Stoke CityStoke | 16 | 5 | 5 | 6 | 19 | 20 | -1 | 20 |
13 | Norwich CityNorwich | 16 | 4 | 7 | 5 | 25 | 24 | 1 | 19 |
14 | Swansea CitySwansea | 15 | 5 | 4 | 6 | 11 | 10 | 1 | 19 |
15 | Sheffield WednesdaySheff Weds | 16 | 5 | 4 | 7 | 18 | 26 | -8 | 19 |
16 | Luton TownLuton | 16 | 5 | 3 | 8 | 18 | 26 | -8 | 18 |
17 | Coventry CityCoventry | 16 | 4 | 5 | 7 | 22 | 23 | -1 | 17 |
18 | Oxford UnitedOxford Utd | 16 | 4 | 5 | 7 | 19 | 24 | -5 | 17 |
19 | Plymouth ArgylePlymouth | 16 | 4 | 5 | 7 | 17 | 28 | -11 | 17 |
20 | Preston North EndPreston | 16 | 3 | 7 | 6 | 16 | 24 | -8 | 16 |
21 | Cardiff CityCardiff | 16 | 4 | 4 | 8 | 15 | 24 | -9 | 16 |
22 | Hull City | 16 | 3 | 6 | 7 | 16 | 21 | -5 | 15 |
23 | Portsmouth | 15 | 2 | 6 | 7 | 16 | 28 | -12 | 12 |
24 | Queens Park RangersQPR | 16 | 1 | 8 | 7 | 13 | 26 | -13 | 11 |
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