Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Vitesse win with a probability of 42.58%. A win for SBV Excelsior had a probability of 32.12% and a draw had a probability of 25.3%.
The most likely scoreline for a Vitesse win was 0-1 with a probability of 9.46%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (8.95%) and 0-2 (7.07%). The likeliest SBV Excelsior win was 1-0 (8.01%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.97%). The actual scoreline of 1-2 was predicted with an 8.9% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Vitesse would win this match.