Uruguay are the joint-top scorers in qualifying with 13, but have not scored in their last three games, and against a mean Ecuador defence, they could struggle once again.
Clean sheets are guiding Ecuador through this qualifying campaign, as the 0-0 last week was the sixth straight qualifier involving them that has seen one goal or less scored, and Uruguay's recent attacking woes suggests this could go the same way.
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Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Uruguay win with a probability of 63.84%. A draw had a probability of 23.3% and a win for Ecuador had a probability of 12.9%.
The most likely scoreline for a Uruguay win was 1-0 with a probability of 16.94%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (14.37%) and 2-1 (8.73%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (10.29%), while for a Ecuador win it was 0-1 (6.07%). The actual scoreline of 0-0 was predicted with a 10% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole correctly predicted a 0-0 draw for this match.
-1.14) 
0.36) 
