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Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Watford win with a probability of 50.42%. A win for Swansea City had a probability of 25.76% and a draw had a probability of 23.8%.
The most likely scoreline for a Watford win was 1-0 with a probability of 9.65%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (9.63%) and 2-0 (8.29%). The likeliest Swansea City win was 0-1 (6.52%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.2%). The actual scoreline of 1-1 was predicted with an 11.2% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole correctly predicted a 1-1 draw for this match.
Result | ||
Watford | Draw | Swansea City |
50.42% ( 0.11) | 23.82% ( -0.02) | 25.76% ( -0.08) |
Both teams to score 56.36% ( 0) |
Goals |
Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
54.92% ( 0.04) | 45.07% ( -0.04) |
Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
32.57% ( 0.04) | 67.42% ( -0.04) |
Watford Goals |
Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
82.06% ( 0.06) | 17.93% ( -0.06) |
Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
51.24% ( 0.1) | 48.75% ( -0.09) |
Swansea City Goals |
Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
68.68% ( -0.04) | 31.32% ( 0.04) |
Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
32.32% ( -0.05) | 67.67% ( 0.05) |
Score Analysis |
Watford | Draw | Swansea City |
1-0 @ 9.65% ( 0) 2-1 @ 9.63% ( 0.01) 2-0 @ 8.29% ( 0.02) 3-1 @ 5.52% ( 0.01) 3-0 @ 4.75% ( 0.02) 3-2 @ 3.2% ( 0) 4-1 @ 2.37% ( 0.01) 4-0 @ 2.04% ( 0.01) 4-2 @ 1.38% ( 0) Other @ 3.59% Total : 50.42% | 1-1 @ 11.2% ( -0.01) 0-0 @ 5.62% ( -0.01) 2-2 @ 5.59% ( -0) 3-3 @ 1.24% Other @ 0.17% Total : 23.81% | 0-1 @ 6.52% ( -0.02) 1-2 @ 6.51% ( -0.01) 0-2 @ 3.79% ( -0.02) 1-3 @ 2.52% ( -0.01) 2-3 @ 2.16% ( -0) 0-3 @ 1.47% ( -0.01) Other @ 2.8% Total : 25.76% |
Team | P | W | D | L | F | A | GD | PTS | |
1 | Leeds UnitedLeeds | 23 | 14 | 6 | 3 | 43 | 15 | 28 | 48 |
2 | Sheffield UnitedSheff Utd | 23 | 15 | 5 | 3 | 32 | 13 | 19 | 48 |
3 | Burnley | 23 | 13 | 8 | 2 | 30 | 9 | 21 | 47 |
4 | Sunderland | 23 | 12 | 8 | 3 | 36 | 20 | 16 | 44 |
5 | Blackburn RoversBlackburn | 22 | 11 | 5 | 6 | 27 | 20 | 7 | 38 |
6 | Watford | 22 | 11 | 4 | 7 | 32 | 29 | 3 | 37 |
7 | Middlesbrough | 23 | 10 | 6 | 7 | 41 | 31 | 10 | 36 |
8 | West Bromwich AlbionWest Brom | 23 | 8 | 11 | 4 | 27 | 18 | 9 | 35 |
9 | Sheffield WednesdaySheff Weds | 23 | 9 | 6 | 8 | 31 | 33 | -2 | 33 |
10 | Swansea CitySwansea | 23 | 8 | 6 | 9 | 27 | 24 | 3 | 30 |
11 | Bristol City | 23 | 7 | 9 | 7 | 27 | 28 | -1 | 30 |
12 | Norwich CityNorwich | 23 | 7 | 8 | 8 | 39 | 35 | 4 | 29 |
13 | Millwall | 22 | 7 | 7 | 8 | 22 | 20 | 2 | 28 |
14 | Derby CountyDerby | 23 | 7 | 6 | 10 | 29 | 29 | 0 | 27 |
15 | Coventry CityCoventry | 23 | 7 | 6 | 10 | 32 | 34 | -2 | 27 |
16 | Preston North EndPreston | 23 | 5 | 11 | 7 | 23 | 29 | -6 | 26 |
17 | Queens Park RangersQPR | 23 | 5 | 10 | 8 | 23 | 31 | -8 | 25 |
18 | Luton TownLuton | 23 | 7 | 4 | 12 | 25 | 39 | -14 | 25 |
19 | Stoke CityStoke | 23 | 5 | 7 | 11 | 23 | 32 | -9 | 22 |
20 | Oxford UnitedOxford Utd | 22 | 5 | 6 | 11 | 24 | 39 | -15 | 21 |
21 | Portsmouth | 21 | 4 | 8 | 9 | 26 | 37 | -11 | 20 |
22 | Hull City | 23 | 4 | 7 | 12 | 21 | 32 | -11 | 19 |
23 | Cardiff CityCardiff | 22 | 4 | 6 | 12 | 21 | 37 | -16 | 18 |
24 | Plymouth ArgylePlymouth | 22 | 4 | 6 | 12 | 22 | 49 | -27 | 18 |
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