Serie A | Gameweek 21
Feb 5, 2023 at 11.30am UK
Stadio Alberto Picco
Spezia0 - 3Napoli
We said: Spezia 0-2 Napoli
There is no reason to suspect lowly Spezia can halt the Napoli juggernaut in Sunday's early kickoff, and recent results suggests the hosts could lose without scoring. Without some integral players, they will surely succumb to the Azzurri for a second time this season. Read more.Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Napoli win with a probability of 73.44%. A draw had a probability of 16.1% and a win for Spezia had a probability of 10.5%.
The most likely scoreline for a Napoli win was 0-2 with a probability of 11.22%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (9.32%) and 0-3 (9.28%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (7.52%), while for a Spezia win it was 2-1 (3.12%). The actual scoreline of 0-3 was predicted with a 9.3% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Napoli would win this match.
| Result | ||
| Spezia | Draw | Napoli |
10.5% ( 0.03) | 16.05% ( -0.05) | 73.44% ( 0.02) |
| Both teams to score 51.67% ( 0.3) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 64.24% ( 0.33) | 35.75% ( -0.33) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 42.17% ( 0.36) | 57.82% ( -0.36) |
| Spezia Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 56.4% ( 0.28) | 43.6% ( -0.28) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
| 20.21% ( 0.23) | 79.79% ( -0.23) |
| Napoli Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 91.62% ( 0.08) | 8.38% ( -0.09) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
| 70.84% ( 0.21) | 29.15% ( -0.21) |
| Score Analysis |
Spezia 10.5%
Napoli 73.43%
Draw 16.05%
| Spezia | Draw | Napoli |
| 2-1 @ 3.12% ( 0.01) 1-0 @ 3.03% ( -0.03)2-0 @ 1.26% ( -0)3-2 @ 1.07% ( 0.02)Other @ 2.02% Total : 10.5% | 1-1 @ 7.52% ( -0.04) 2-2 @ 3.87% ( 0.03)0-0 @ 3.65% ( -0.06)Other @ 1.01% Total : 16.05% | 0-2 @ 11.22% ( -0.1) 1-2 @ 9.32% ( -0.01)0-3 @ 9.28% ( -0.04)0-1 @ 9.06% ( -0.11)1-3 @ 7.7% ( 0.03)0-4 @ 5.75% ( -0)1-4 @ 4.78% ( 0.04)2-3 @ 3.2% ( 0.04)0-5 @ 2.85% ( 0.01)1-5 @ 2.37% ( 0.03)2-4 @ 1.98% ( 0.03)0-6 @ 1.18% ( 0.01)2-5 @ 0.98% ( 0.02)1-6 @ 0.98% ( 0.02)Other @ 2.78% Total : 73.43% |
How you voted: Spezia vs Napoli
Spezia
11.7%Draw
7.4%Napoli
80.9%94
Head to Head
Sep 10, 2022 2pm
