Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Melbourne City win with a probability of 54.38%. A win for Brisbane Roar had a probability of 25.59% and a draw had a probability of 20%.
The most likely scoreline for a Melbourne City win was 1-2 with a probability of 8.84%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-3 (6.68%) and 0-2 (5.79%). The likeliest Brisbane Roar win was 2-1 (5.95%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (7.79%). The actual scoreline of 1-4 was predicted with a 3.8% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Melbourne City would win this match.