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Adelaide United
Brisbane Roar
Central Coast Mariners
Macarthur
Melbourne City
Melbourne Victory
Newcastle Jets
Perth Glory
Sydney FC
Wellington Phoenix
Western Sydney Wanderers
Western United
Melbourne Victory
Australian A-League | Gameweek 26
Apr 29, 2023 at 10.45am UK
AAMI Park
Brisbane Roar

Victory
0 - 1
Brisbane Roar


Chapman (57'), Marchan (83')
FT(HT: 0-0)
Courtney-Perkins (54')
Freke (90+2')

The Match

Preview

Sports Mole previews Saturday's Australian A-League clash between Melbourne Victory and Brisbane Roar, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

Form, Standings, Stats

Last Game: Victory 2-1 Macarthur
Sunday, April 23 at 6am in Australian A-League
Last Game: Brisbane Roar 0-2 Sydney FC
Monday, April 24 at 10am in Australian A-League

We said: Melbourne Victory 1-1 Brisbane Roar

Neither team will want to finish the season bottom of the league and that is likely going to create a cagey atmosphere here that could lead to them sharing the points. Read more.

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Melbourne Victory win with a probability of 46.18%. A win for Brisbane Roar had a probability of 29.58% and a draw had a probability of 24.2%.

The most likely scoreline for a Melbourne Victory win was 2-1 with a probability of 9.31%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (8.94%) and 2-0 (7.34%). The likeliest Brisbane Roar win was 1-2 (7.19%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.33%). The actual scoreline of 0-1 was predicted with a 6.9% likelihood.

Result
Melbourne VictoryDrawBrisbane Roar
46.18% (-0.456 -0.46) 24.24% (-0.038 -0.04) 29.58% (0.494 0.49)
Both teams to score 57.98% (0.448 0.45)
Goals
Over 2.5Under 2.5
55.67% (0.449 0.45)44.33% (-0.449 -0.45)
Over 3.5Under 3.5
33.3% (0.435 0.44)66.7% (-0.435 -0.44)
Melbourne Victory Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
80.66% (-0.012 -0.01)19.34% (0.012 0.01)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
48.89% (-0.018999999999998 -0.02)51.11% (0.018000000000001 0.02)
Brisbane Roar Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
71.88% (0.568 0.57)28.12% (-0.567 -0.57)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
36.2% (0.714 0.71)63.8% (-0.714 -0.71)
Score Analysis
    Melbourne Victory 46.18%
    Brisbane Roar 29.58%
    Draw 24.24%
Melbourne VictoryDrawBrisbane Roar
2-1 @ 9.31% (-0.039999999999999 -0.04)
1-0 @ 8.94% (-0.178 -0.18)
2-0 @ 7.34% (-0.15 -0.15)
3-1 @ 5.1% (-0.023 -0.02)
3-0 @ 4.02% (-0.083 -0.08)
3-2 @ 3.24% (0.036 0.04)
4-1 @ 2.1% (-0.011 -0.01)
4-0 @ 1.65% (-0.034 -0.03)
4-2 @ 1.33% (0.014 0.01)
Other @ 3.16%
Total : 46.18%
1-1 @ 11.33% (-0.050000000000001 -0.05)
2-2 @ 5.91% (0.068 0.07)
0-0 @ 5.44% (-0.107 -0.11)
3-3 @ 1.37% (0.037 0.04)
Other @ 0.19%
Total : 24.24%
1-2 @ 7.19% (0.086 0.09)
0-1 @ 6.9% (-0.024 -0.02)
0-2 @ 4.38% (0.054 0.05)
1-3 @ 3.04% (0.083 0.08)
2-3 @ 2.5% (0.068 0.07)
0-3 @ 1.85% (0.051 0.05)
1-4 @ 0.96% (0.041 0.04)
Other @ 2.76%
Total : 29.58%

How you voted: Victory vs Brisbane Roar

Melbourne Victory
50.0%
Draw
40.0%
Brisbane Roar
10.0%
10
Head to Head
Jan 6, 2023 8.45am
Oct 29, 2022 5am
Apr 25, 2022 5.05am
gameweek 16
Brisbane Roar
1-1
Victory
Parsons (54')
Parsons (44'), Akbari (47'), O'Shea (90')
Hamill (68')
Ikonomidis (32'), Brillante (84')
Apr 12, 2022 10.05am
gameweek 7
Victory
0-0
Brisbane Roar

Marchan (44'), Broxham (83')

Olsen (32'), Holmes (87')
Nov 28, 2021 5.05am
gameweek 2
Victory
3-0
Brisbane Roar
Trewin (28' og.), D'Agostino (32'), Folami (50')
Brillante (15'), Broxham (78'), Brimmer (81')

O'Shea (24'), Brown (83'), Daley (90')
rhs 2.0
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