MX23RW : Wednesday, December 25 04:14:04| >> :120:4989:4989:
Copa Sudamericana | Semi-Finals | 1st Leg
Sep 27, 2023 at 11pm UK
Estadio de Liga Deportiva Universitaria
Defensa y Justicia

LDU Quito
3 - 0
Defensa

Guerrero (17', 42'), Piovi (88')
FT(HT: 2-0)

Barbona (35')

The Match

Preview

Sports Mole previews Wednesday's Copa Sudamericana clash between LDU Quito and Defensa y Justicia, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

Form, Standings, Stats

LDU Quito

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Last Game: Sao Paulo 1-0 LDU Quito (4-5 pen.)
Thursday, August 31 at 11pm in Copa Sudamericana
:no data 356|l|156:DIVision:.!d!.:Sport:1:

Defensa y Justicia

All competitions
Copa Sudamericana
Last Game: C. Cordoba 2-1 Defensa
Sunday, September 24 at 1am in Argentine Primera Division

We said: LDU Quito 1-1 Defensa y Justicia

 While the visitors' record has been nothing special of late, they have looked like a different team in this competition. Based on form, LDU Quito should win this match, but we are backing Defensa y Justicia to to keep this one level heading into the second leg. Read more.

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a LDU Quito win with a probability of 49.06%. A win for Defensa y Justicia had a probability of 26.36% and a draw had a probability of 24.6%.

The most likely scoreline for a LDU Quito win was 1-0 with a probability of 10.32%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (9.51%) and 2-0 (8.42%). The likeliest Defensa y Justicia win was 0-1 (7.14%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.65%). The actual scoreline of 3-0 was predicted with a 4.6% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that LDU Quito would win this match.

Result
LDU QuitoDrawDefensa y Justicia
49.06% (0.324 0.32) 24.58% (-0.48 -0.48) 26.36% (0.155 0.16)
Both teams to score 54.43% (1.656 1.66)
Goals
Over 2.5Under 2.5
52.11% (2.113 2.11)47.89% (-2.112 -2.11)
Over 3.5Under 3.5
29.93% (1.916 1.92)70.07% (-1.914 -1.91)
LDU Quito Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
80.44% (0.979 0.98)19.56% (-0.978 -0.98)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
48.52% (1.572 1.57)51.48% (-1.571 -1.57)
Defensa y Justicia Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
67.67% (1.251 1.25)32.33% (-1.248 -1.25)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
31.16% (1.386 1.39)68.84% (-1.385 -1.39)
Score Analysis
    LDU Quito 49.06%
    Defensa y Justicia 26.36%
    Draw 24.58%
LDU QuitoDrawDefensa y Justicia
1-0 @ 10.32% (-0.59 -0.59)
2-1 @ 9.51% (0.077 0.08)
2-0 @ 8.42% (-0.221 -0.22)
3-1 @ 5.17% (0.195 0.19)
3-0 @ 4.58% (0.02 0.02)
3-2 @ 2.92% (0.204 0.2)
4-1 @ 2.11% (0.14 0.14)
4-0 @ 1.87% (0.063 0.06)
4-2 @ 1.19% (0.116 0.12)
Other @ 2.98%
Total : 49.06%
1-1 @ 11.65% (-0.26 -0.26)
0-0 @ 6.33% (-0.572 -0.57)
2-2 @ 5.37% (0.222 0.22)
3-3 @ 1.1% (0.111 0.11)
Other @ 0.14%
Total : 24.58%
0-1 @ 7.14% (-0.385 -0.39)
1-2 @ 6.58% (0.078 0.08)
0-2 @ 4.03% (-0.075 -0.08)
1-3 @ 2.48% (0.112 0.11)
2-3 @ 2.02% (0.149 0.15)
0-3 @ 1.52% (0.023 0.02)
Other @ 2.6%
Total : 26.36%

Head to Head
May 19, 2022 1.30am
Group Stage
LDU Quito
2-2
Defensa
Quinteros (5'), Angulo (71')
Alvarado (47'), Ayala (75')
Albertengo (29', 44')
Cardona (12'), Alanis (45+1'), Albertengo (66'), Duarte (77'), Pieres (90+2')
Apr 28, 2022 11.15pm
Group Stage
Defensa
1-2
LDU Quito
Albertengo (82')
Tripichio (85'), Fontana (90+1'), Albertengo (90+1')
Alvarado (55', 87')
Arce (90+1')
rhs 2.0
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