La Liga | Gameweek 20
Jan 13, 2024 at 5.30pm UK
San Mames Barria
Athletic Bilbao2 - 1Real Sociedad
FT(HT: 2-0)
Form, Standings, Stats
Last Game: Eibar 0-3 Athletic Bilbao
Sunday, January 7 at 6pm in Copa del Rey
Sunday, January 7 at 6pm in Copa del Rey
Last Game: Malaga 0-1 Real Sociedad
Sunday, January 7 at 8pm in Copa del Rey
Sunday, January 7 at 8pm in Copa del Rey
We said: Athletic Bilbao 2-1 Real Sociedad
Both teams will be missing some important players this weekend, but Real Sociedad have been hit the hardest in terms of absentees. Under normal circumstances, we would be backing a draw here, but Athletic can take advantage of the away side's problems to secure a vital three points in the Basque derby. Read more.Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Athletic Bilbao win with a probability of 39.5%. A win for Real Sociedad had a probability of 33.21% and a draw had a probability of 27.3%.
The most likely scoreline for an Athletic Bilbao win was 1-0 with a probability of 11.16%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (8.32%) and 2-0 (7.19%). The likeliest Real Sociedad win was 0-1 (10.03%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.92%). The actual scoreline of 2-1 was predicted with an 8.3% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole correctly predicted a 2-1 win for Athletic Bilbao in this match and our data analysis correctly predicted the win for Athletic Bilbao.
| Result | ||
| Athletic Bilbao | Draw | Real Sociedad |
39.5% ( 0.29) | 27.28% ( -0.06) | 33.21% ( -0.23) |
| Both teams to score 49.66% ( 0.13) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
