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League One
Portsmouth
League One | Gameweek 42
Apr 2, 2024 at 8pm UK
Fratton Park
Derby logo

Portsmouth
2 - 2
Derby

Kamara (27'), Moxon (77')
Lane (20'), Ogilvie (72')
FT(HT: 1-2)
Ward (23', 35')
Collins (43')

The Match

Preview

Sports Mole previews Tuesday's League One clash between Portsmouth and Derby County, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

Form, Standings, Stats

Portsmouth

All competitions
Last Game: Wycombe 1-3 Portsmouth
Friday, March 29 at 3pm in League One

Derby County

All competitions
Last Game: Derby 1-0 Blackpool
Friday, March 29 at 3pm in League One

We said: Portsmouth 1-1 Derby County

 Portsmouth and Derby will both be determined to claim three points to aid their respective promotion bids, but with the last three meetings finishing all square, we think that they will play out another draw in Tuesday's contest. Read more.

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Derby County win with a probability of 39.85%. A win for Portsmouth had a probability of 34.95% and a draw had a probability of 25.2%.

The most likely scoreline for a Derby County win was 0-1 with a probability of 8.8%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (8.66%) and 0-2 (6.41%). The likeliest Portsmouth win was 1-0 (8.15%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.87%). The actual scoreline of 2-2 was predicted with a 5.8% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole correctly predicted a draw in this match.

Result
PortsmouthDrawDerby County
34.95% (-0.256 -0.26) 25.2% (0.074000000000002 0.07) 39.85% (0.183 0.18)
Both teams to score 56.83% (-0.306 -0.31)
Goals
Over 2.5Under 2.5
53.23% (-0.377 -0.38)46.76% (0.377 0.38)
Over 3.5Under 3.5
30.97% (-0.354 -0.35)69.02% (0.35499999999999 0.35)
Portsmouth Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
74.07% (-0.324 -0.32)25.93% (0.326 0.33)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
39.06% (-0.445 -0.45)60.93% (0.445 0.45)
Derby County Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
76.73% (-0.075000000000003 -0.08)23.27% (0.076000000000001 0.08)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
42.8% (-0.108 -0.11)57.2% (0.10899999999999 0.11)
Score Analysis
    Portsmouth 34.95%
    Derby County 39.85%
    Draw 25.19%
PortsmouthDrawDerby County
1-0 @ 8.15% (0.054 0.05)
2-1 @ 8.01% (-0.040000000000001 -0.04)
2-0 @ 5.5% (-0.015999999999999 -0.02)
3-1 @ 3.61% (-0.052 -0.05)
3-2 @ 2.63% (-0.044 -0.04)
3-0 @ 2.47% (-0.03 -0.03)
4-1 @ 1.22% (-0.03 -0.03)
Other @ 3.37%
Total : 34.95%
1-1 @ 11.87% (0.049999999999999 0.05)
0-0 @ 6.03% (0.095 0.09)
2-2 @ 5.84% (-0.042000000000001 -0.04)
3-3 @ 1.28% (-0.025 -0.03)
Other @ 0.17%
Total : 25.19%
0-1 @ 8.8% (0.119 0.12)
1-2 @ 8.66% (0.019 0.02)
0-2 @ 6.41% (0.073 0.07)
1-3 @ 4.21% (-0.0010000000000003 -0)
0-3 @ 3.12% (0.029 0.03)
2-3 @ 2.84% (-0.027 -0.03)
1-4 @ 1.53% (-0.0029999999999999 -0)
0-4 @ 1.14% (0.008 0.01)
2-4 @ 1.04% (-0.012 -0.01)
Other @ 2.12%
Total : 39.85%

How you voted: Portsmouth vs Derby

Portsmouth
58.9%
Draw
23.3%
Derby County
17.8%
90
Head to Head
Sep 16, 2023 3pm
Gameweek 8
Derby
1-1
Portsmouth
Collins (86' pen.)
Fornah (26'), Collins (88'), (90+5')
Bishop (90+5')
Pack (10'), Poole (28'), Robertson (65')
Apr 29, 2023 3pm
Gameweek 45
Derby
1-1
Portsmouth
Collins (71')
Bishop (24')
> Preview
Nov 18, 2022 8pm
Gameweek 19
Portsmouth
0-0
Derby
> Preview
Aug 12, 2015 7.45pm
Round One
Portsmouth
2-1
Derby
> Match Report
Apr 21, 2012 3pm
Portsmouth
1-2
Derby
Varney (74')
Kitson (42'), Varney (55'), Pearce (65')
Buxton (41'), Davies (78' pen.)
Davies (65')
> Match Report
rhs 2.0
Today's games header
> View full version> Yesterday's results
Tables header RHS
TeamPWDLFAGDPTS
1Birmingham CityBirmingham23165241172453
2Wycombe WanderersWycombe25156450272351
3Wrexham26156538201851
4Huddersfield TownHuddersfield24145537191847
5Barnsley2512673933642
6Reading2412573933641
7Stockport CountyStockport25108737271038
8Leyton Orient24114932221037
9Mansfield TownMansfield2311483126537
10Bolton WanderersBolton2411493637-137
11Charlton AthleticCharlton239772721634
12Lincoln CityLincoln258892830-232
13Rotherham UnitedRotherham248792424031
14Stevenage238781820-231
15Exeter CityExeter2494112831-331
16Blackpool247983235-330
17Wigan AthleticWigan2376102123-227
18Northampton TownNorthampton2568112439-1526
19Peterborough UnitedPeterborough2474134146-525
20Bristol Rovers2474132238-1625
21Shrewsbury TownShrewsbury2555152645-1920
22Crawley TownCrawley2355132443-1920
23Cambridge UnitedCambridge2445152243-2117
24Burton Albion2428142038-1814
> League One Full Table


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