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League One
Portsmouth
League One | Gameweek 42
Apr 2, 2024 at 8pm UK
Fratton Park
Derby logo

Portsmouth
2 - 2
Derby

Kamara (27'), Moxon (77')
Lane (20'), Ogilvie (72')
FT(HT: 1-2)
Ward (23', 35')
Collins (43')

The Match

Preview

Sports Mole previews Tuesday's League One clash between Portsmouth and Derby County, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

Form, Standings, Stats

Portsmouth

All competitions
Last Game: Wycombe 1-3 Portsmouth
Friday, March 29 at 3pm in League One

Derby County

All competitions
Last Game: Derby 1-0 Blackpool
Friday, March 29 at 3pm in League One

We said: Portsmouth 1-1 Derby County

 Portsmouth and Derby will both be determined to claim three points to aid their respective promotion bids, but with the last three meetings finishing all square, we think that they will play out another draw in Tuesday's contest. Read more.

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Derby County win with a probability of 39.85%. A win for Portsmouth had a probability of 34.95% and a draw had a probability of 25.2%.

The most likely scoreline for a Derby County win was 0-1 with a probability of 8.8%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (8.66%) and 0-2 (6.41%). The likeliest Portsmouth win was 1-0 (8.15%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.87%). The actual scoreline of 2-2 was predicted with a 5.8% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole correctly predicted a draw in this match.

Result
PortsmouthDrawDerby County
34.95% (-0.256 -0.26) 25.2% (0.074000000000002 0.07) 39.85% (0.183 0.18)
Both teams to score 56.83% (-0.306 -0.31)
Goals
Over 2.5Under 2.5
53.23% (-0.377 -0.38)46.76% (0.377 0.38)
Over 3.5Under 3.5
30.97% (-0.354 -0.35)69.02% (0.35499999999999 0.35)
Portsmouth Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
74.07% (-0.324 -0.32)25.93% (0.326 0.33)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
39.06% (-0.445 -0.45)60.93% (0.445 0.45)
Derby County Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
76.73% (-0.075000000000003 -0.08)23.27% (0.076000000000001 0.08)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
42.8% (-0.108 -0.11)57.2% (0.10899999999999 0.11)
Score Analysis
    Portsmouth 34.95%
    Derby County 39.85%
    Draw 25.19%
PortsmouthDrawDerby County
1-0 @ 8.15% (0.054 0.05)
2-1 @ 8.01% (-0.040000000000001 -0.04)
2-0 @ 5.5% (-0.015999999999999 -0.02)
3-1 @ 3.61% (-0.052 -0.05)
3-2 @ 2.63% (-0.044 -0.04)
3-0 @ 2.47% (-0.03 -0.03)
4-1 @ 1.22% (-0.03 -0.03)
Other @ 3.37%
Total : 34.95%
1-1 @ 11.87% (0.049999999999999 0.05)
0-0 @ 6.03% (0.095 0.09)
2-2 @ 5.84% (-0.042000000000001 -0.04)
3-3 @ 1.28% (-0.025 -0.03)
Other @ 0.17%
Total : 25.19%
0-1 @ 8.8% (0.119 0.12)
1-2 @ 8.66% (0.019 0.02)
0-2 @ 6.41% (0.073 0.07)
1-3 @ 4.21% (-0.0010000000000003 -0)
0-3 @ 3.12% (0.029 0.03)
2-3 @ 2.84% (-0.027 -0.03)
1-4 @ 1.53% (-0.0029999999999999 -0)
0-4 @ 1.14% (0.008 0.01)
2-4 @ 1.04% (-0.012 -0.01)
Other @ 2.12%
Total : 39.85%

How you voted: Portsmouth vs Derby

Portsmouth
58.9%
Draw
23.3%
Derby County
17.8%
90
Head to Head
Sep 16, 2023 3pm
Gameweek 8
Derby
1-1
Portsmouth
Collins (86' pen.)
Fornah (26'), Collins (88'), (90+5')
Bishop (90+5')
Pack (10'), Poole (28'), Robertson (65')
Apr 29, 2023 3pm
Gameweek 45
Derby
1-1
Portsmouth
Collins (71')
Bishop (24')
> Preview
Nov 18, 2022 8pm
Gameweek 19
Portsmouth
0-0
Derby
> Preview
Aug 12, 2015 7.45pm
Round One
Portsmouth
2-1
Derby
> Match Report
Apr 21, 2012 3pm
Portsmouth
1-2
Derby
Varney (74')
Kitson (42'), Varney (55'), Pearce (65')
Buxton (41'), Davies (78' pen.)
Davies (65')
> Match Report
rhs 2.0
Today's games header
> View full version> Yesterday's results
Tables header RHS
TeamPWDLFAGDPTS
1Wycombe WanderersWycombe19134243222143
2Birmingham CityBirmingham18133234161842
3Wrexham20125330131741
4Huddersfield TownHuddersfield19113530181236
5Stockport CountyStockport2096532211133
6Reading199463028231
7Barnsley208662926330
8Bolton WanderersBolton189362829-130
9Lincoln CityLincoln207762625128
10Blackpool197572931-226
11Mansfield TownMansfield187472222025
12Stevenage187471517-225
13Peterborough UnitedPeterborough197393735224
14Charlton AthleticCharlton196671819-124
15Exeter CityExeter197391721-424
16Wigan AthleticWigan196581716123
17Rotherham UnitedRotherham186571920-123
18Leyton Orient196491920-122
19Northampton TownNorthampton205692129-821
20Bristol Rovers1963101728-1121
21Crawley TownCrawley1954102032-1219
22Cambridge UnitedCambridge1945102031-1117
23Burton Albion1926111630-1412
24Shrewsbury TownShrewsbury1932141939-2011
> League One Full Table


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