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League One
Carlisle United
League One | Gameweek 28
Jan 13, 2024 at 3pm UK
Brunton Park
Oxford United

Carlisle
1 - 3
Oxford Utd

McCalmont (71')
Moxon (27'), Neal (31'), Mellish (43'), Garner (72')
FT(HT: 0-1)
Harris (39', 47'), Goodrham (67')
Bennett (53'), Smyth (72')

The Match

Preview

Sports Mole previews Saturday's League One clash between Carlisle United and Oxford United, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

Form, Standings, Stats

Carlisle United

All competitions
Last Game: Exeter 2-1 Carlisle
Saturday, January 6 at 3pm in League One

Oxford United

All competitions
League One
Last Game: AFC Wimbledon 2-0 Oxford Utd
Tuesday, January 9 at 7.45pm in EFL Trophy

We said: Carlisle United 1-2 Oxford United

 Carlisle have plenty of new faces in the squad at the moment which should provide the team with additional quality to cause problems this weekend. However, bedding several new players in at once is no easy feat, which could be the advantage that Oxford need to take three points. Read more.

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Carlisle United win with a probability of 37.76%. A win for Oxford United had a probability of 36.1% and a draw had a probability of 26.1%.

The most likely scoreline for a Carlisle United win was 1-0 with a probability of 9.54%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (8.32%) and 2-0 (6.38%). The likeliest Oxford United win was 0-1 (9.29%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.42%). The actual scoreline of 1-3 was predicted with a 3.5% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole correctly predicted that Oxford United would win this match.

Result
Carlisle UnitedDrawOxford United
37.76% (-0.064 -0.06) 26.15% (-0.015000000000001 -0.02) 36.1% (0.077999999999996 0.08)
Both teams to score 53.72% (0.055 0.05)
Goals
Over 2.5Under 2.5
49.18% (0.067999999999998 0.07)50.81% (-0.07 -0.07)
Over 3.5Under 3.5
27.3% (0.060000000000002 0.06)72.7% (-0.060999999999993 -0.06)
Carlisle United Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
73.77% (-0.0060000000000002 -0.01)26.23% (0.0040000000000013 0)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
38.67% (-0.0060000000000002 -0.01)61.33% (0.0050000000000026 0.01)
Oxford United Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
72.82% (0.079999999999998 0.08)27.18% (-0.079000000000001 -0.08)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
37.42% (0.104 0.1)62.58% (-0.105 -0.1)
Score Analysis
    Carlisle United 37.76%
    Oxford United 36.1%
    Draw 26.14%
Carlisle UnitedDrawOxford United
1-0 @ 9.54% (-0.028 -0.03)
2-1 @ 8.32% (-0.0060000000000002 -0.01)
2-0 @ 6.38% (-0.018999999999999 -0.02)
3-1 @ 3.71% (-0.0030000000000001 -0)
3-0 @ 2.85% (-0.0090000000000003 -0.01)
3-2 @ 2.42% (0.0029999999999997 0)
4-1 @ 1.24% (-0.0010000000000001 -0)
4-0 @ 0.95% (-0.003 -0)
Other @ 2.34%
Total : 37.76%
1-1 @ 12.42% (-0.0099999999999998 -0.01)
0-0 @ 7.13% (-0.02 -0.02)
2-2 @ 5.42% (0.008 0.01)
3-3 @ 1.05% (0.004 0)
Other @ 0.12%
Total : 26.14%
0-1 @ 9.29% (-0.0060000000000002 -0.01)
1-2 @ 8.1% (0.013 0.01)
0-2 @ 6.05% (0.011 0.01)
1-3 @ 3.52% (0.014 0.01)
0-3 @ 2.63% (0.011 0.01)
2-3 @ 2.35% (0.0090000000000003 0.01)
1-4 @ 1.15% (0.0070000000000001 0.01)
Other @ 3.03%
Total : 36.1%

How you voted: Carlisle vs Oxford Utd

Carlisle United
28.6%
Draw
0.0%
Oxford United
71.4%
7
Head to Head
Aug 12, 2023 3pm
Gameweek 2
Oxford Utd
1-0
Carlisle
Harris (76')
Harris (39'), O'Donkor (90+6')

Guy (51'), McCalmont (59'), Back (62'), Huntington (73'), Mellish (90+6')
> Preview
Apr 30, 2016 3pm
Carlisle
0-2
Oxford Utd

Miller (66')
Maguire (4' pen.), Sercombe (74')
Maguire (18'), Wright (82')
Dec 12, 2015 3pm
Oxford Utd
1-1
Carlisle
MacDonald (34')
Dunkley (45' og.)
Joyce (18')
Mar 28, 2015 3pm
Oxford Utd
2-1
Carlisle
Hoban (38'), Vassell (80')
Baldock (54')
Corry (9')
Acrhibald-Henville (66'), Buddle (77')
Acrhibald-Henville (68')
Oct 25, 2014 3pm
Carlisle
2-1
Oxford Utd
Beck (73'), Asamoah (89')
Marrow (50')
Hylton (45')
rhs 2.0
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Tables header RHS
TeamPWDLFAGDPTS
1Wycombe WanderersWycombe20135243222144
2Birmingham CityBirmingham18133234161842
3Wrexham21126331141742
4Huddersfield TownHuddersfield20123534181639
5Stockport CountyStockport21106534221236
6Lincoln CityLincoln218762825331
7Reading209473030031
8Bolton WanderersBolton199462829-131
9Barnsley208662926330
10Blackpool197572931-226
11Mansfield TownMansfield187472222025
12Stevenage187471517-225
13Peterborough UnitedPeterborough2073103837124
14Charlton AthleticCharlton196671819-124
15Exeter CityExeter197391721-424
16Wigan AthleticWigan196581716123
17Rotherham UnitedRotherham186571920-123
18Leyton Orient196491920-122
19Bristol Rovers2064101829-1122
20Northampton TownNorthampton205692129-821
21Crawley TownCrawley1954102032-1219
22Cambridge UnitedCambridge2045112035-1517
23Burton Albion1926111630-1412
24Shrewsbury TownShrewsbury1932141939-2011
> League One Full Table


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