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Carlisle United
League One | Gameweek 40
Mar 23, 2024 at 3pm UK
Brunton Park
Stevenage

Carlisle
2 - 2
Stevenage

Butterworth (13', 65')
Charters (45+2'), Neal (67'), Butterworth (72'), Lewis (77')
FT(HT: 1-0)
MacDonald (82' pen.), Vancooten (90+6')
Freeman (29'), Roberts (39')

The Match

Preview

Sports Mole previews Saturday's League One clash between Carlisle United and Stevenage, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

Form, Standings, Stats

Last Game: Shrewsbury 1-0 Carlisle
Saturday, March 16 at 3pm in League One
Last Game: Stevenage 0-1 Leyton Orient
Saturday, March 16 at 3pm in League One

We said: Carlisle United 1-1 Stevenage

Set to be supported by a bumper crowd at Brunton Park, Carlisle will be desperate to return to winning ways on Saturday afternoon against Stevenage. The Boro are without their leading marksman on Saturday, and we reckon that their dreams of reaching the playoffs will take another blow in this one. Read more.

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Stevenage win with a probability of 58.52%. A draw had a probability of 23.3% and a win for Carlisle United had a probability of 18.21%.

The most likely scoreline for a Stevenage win was 0-1 with a probability of 12.75%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-2 (11.21%) and 1-2 (9.7%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (11.03%), while for a Carlisle United win it was 1-0 (6.28%). The actual scoreline of 2-2 was predicted with a 4.2% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole correctly predicted a draw in this match.

Result
Carlisle UnitedDrawStevenage
18.21% (-0.395 -0.4) 23.27% (-0.367 -0.37) 58.52% (0.762 0.76)
Both teams to score 47.94% (0.396 0.4)
Goals
Over 2.5Under 2.5
48.76% (0.887 0.89)51.24% (-0.887 -0.89)
Over 3.5Under 3.5
26.92% (0.771 0.77)73.08% (-0.77200000000001 -0.77)
Carlisle United Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
57.91% (0.058999999999997 0.06)42.09% (-0.061 -0.06)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
21.49% (0.050999999999998 0.05)78.51% (-0.051000000000002 -0.05)
Stevenage Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
82.77% (0.596 0.6)17.23% (-0.597 -0.6)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
52.47% (1.039 1.04)47.52% (-1.039 -1.04)
Score Analysis
    Carlisle United 18.21%
    Stevenage 58.51%
    Draw 23.26%
Carlisle UnitedDrawStevenage
1-0 @ 6.28% (-0.216 -0.22)
2-1 @ 4.78% (-0.061 -0.06)
2-0 @ 2.72% (-0.089 -0.09)
3-1 @ 1.38% (-0.016 -0.02)
3-2 @ 1.21% (0.01 0.01)
Other @ 1.86%
Total : 18.21%
1-1 @ 11.03% (-0.16 -0.16)
0-0 @ 7.25% (-0.261 -0.26)
2-2 @ 4.2% (0.029 0.03)
Other @ 0.78%
Total : 23.26%
0-1 @ 12.75% (-0.2 -0.2)
0-2 @ 11.21% (0.040000000000001 0.04)
1-2 @ 9.7% (0.051 0.05)
0-3 @ 6.57% (0.15 0.15)
1-3 @ 5.69% (0.139 0.14)
0-4 @ 2.89% (0.121 0.12)
1-4 @ 2.5% (0.108 0.11)
2-3 @ 2.46% (0.064 0.06)
2-4 @ 1.08% (0.048 0.05)
0-5 @ 1.02% (0.061 0.06)
Other @ 2.64%
Total : 58.51%

How you voted: Carlisle vs Stevenage

Carlisle United
14.5%
Draw
36.4%
Stevenage
49.1%
55
Head to Head
Sep 9, 2023 3pm
Gameweek 7
Stevenage
2-2
Carlisle
Reid (15', 74')
McNeill (37'), Roberts (72')
Maguire (20'), Garner (90')
Gibson (31'), Guy (83')
Mar 18, 2023 3pm
Aug 20, 2022 3pm
Gameweek 5
Stevenage
2-1
Carlisle
Smith (16'), Clark (42')
Norris (89'), Ashby-Hammond (90+2')
Dennis (45+2')
Harris (69')
Apr 30, 2022 3pm
Gameweek 45
Carlisle
2-1
Stevenage
Riley (52'), Alessandra (63')
Norris (88' pen.)
Taylor (33')
Dec 11, 2021 3pm
Gameweek 21
Stevenage
0-2
Carlisle

Wildin (72')
Mellish (45'), Gibson (65' pen.)
Mellor (7')
rhs 2.0
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Tables header RHS
TeamPWDLFAGDPTS
1Wycombe WanderersWycombe14102232161632
2Birmingham CityBirmingham1393124121230
3Wrexham1584322111128
4Stockport CountyStockport167632617927
5Barnsley157532419526
6Lincoln CityLincoln157532117426
7Mansfield TownMansfield137332015524
8Huddersfield TownHuddersfield147252114723
9Exeter CityExeter147251410423
10Reading147252221123
11Bolton WanderersBolton147252224-223
12Peterborough UnitedPeterborough156363127421
13Charlton AthleticCharlton145451515019
14Bristol Rovers155371621-518
15Stevenage155371116-518
16Northampton TownNorthampton154561821-317
17Rotherham UnitedRotherham154561418-417
18Blackpool154562128-717
19Wigan AthleticWigan143561212014
20Leyton Orient144281418-414
21Crawley TownCrawley163491427-1313
22Cambridge UnitedCambridge143291324-1111
23Burton Albion141581525-108
24Shrewsbury TownShrewsbury1522111327-148


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