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Reims
Rennes
Saint-Etienne
Strasbourg
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Ligue 1 | Gameweek 12
Nov 12, 2023 at 7.45pm UK
Stade Bollaert-Delelis
Marseille

Lens
1 - 0
Marseille

Gradit (90')
Gradit (44'), Abdul Samed (76')
FT(HT: 0-0)

Lodi (37'), Oliveira (45+2')

The Match

Preview

Sports Mole previews Sunday's Ligue 1 clash between Lens and Marseille, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

Form, Standings, Stats

Last Game: PSV 1-0 Lens
Wednesday, November 8 at 8pm in Champions League
Last Game: AEK Athens 0-2 Marseille
Thursday, November 9 at 8pm in Europa League

We said: Lens 1-1 Marseille

Both sides have shown pragmatic approaches to get results in recent weeks, as defensive solidity has been the backbone of Haise's success at Lens. It will be a tough place to come to end Marseille's winless away run, and that is set to continue, but the spoils may well be shared here. Read more.

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Lens win with a probability of 46.91%. A win for Marseille had a probability of 27.88% and a draw had a probability of 25.2%.

The most likely scoreline for a Lens win was 1-0 with a probability of 10.51%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (9.31%) and 2-0 (8.17%). The likeliest Marseille win was 0-1 (7.71%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.97%). The actual scoreline of 1-0 was predicted with a 10.5% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted a 1-0 win for Lens in this match.

Result
LensDrawMarseille
46.91% (-0.036000000000001 -0.04) 25.21% (-0.097999999999999 -0.1) 27.88% (0.134 0.13)
Both teams to score 53.61% (0.41 0.41)
Goals
Over 2.5Under 2.5
50.47% (0.489 0.49)49.53% (-0.489 -0.49)
Over 3.5Under 3.5
28.44% (0.437 0.44)71.56% (-0.438 -0.44)
Lens Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
78.87% (0.185 0.19)21.13% (-0.185 -0.18)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
46.02% (0.287 0.29)53.98% (-0.286 -0.29)
Marseille Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
67.98% (0.36 0.36)32.02% (-0.36 -0.36)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
31.52% (0.407 0.41)68.48% (-0.40599999999999 -0.41)
Score Analysis
    Lens 46.91%
    Marseille 27.88%
    Draw 25.2%
LensDrawMarseille
1-0 @ 10.51% (-0.15 -0.15)
2-1 @ 9.31% (0.010999999999999 0.01)
2-0 @ 8.17% (-0.071 -0.07)
3-1 @ 4.82% (0.033 0.03)
3-0 @ 4.24% (-0.013 -0.01)
3-2 @ 2.75% (0.046 0.05)
4-1 @ 1.87% (0.023 0.02)
4-0 @ 1.65% (0.004 0)
4-2 @ 1.07% (0.023 0.02)
Other @ 2.52%
Total : 46.91%
1-1 @ 11.97% (-0.059999999999999 -0.06)
0-0 @ 6.77% (-0.136 -0.14)
2-2 @ 5.3% (0.059 0.06)
3-3 @ 1.04% (0.028 0.03)
Other @ 0.12%
Total : 25.2%
0-1 @ 7.71% (-0.078 -0.08)
1-2 @ 6.82% (0.037 0.04)
0-2 @ 4.39%
1-3 @ 2.59% (0.039 0.04)
2-3 @ 2.01% (0.041 0.04)
0-3 @ 1.67% (0.016 0.02)
Other @ 2.7%
Total : 27.88%

How you voted: Lens vs Marseille

Lens
51.4%
Draw
31.4%
Marseille
17.1%
35
Head to Head
May 6, 2023 8pm
Gameweek 34
Lens
2-1
Marseille
Fofana (42'), Openda (60')
Payet (88')
Oct 22, 2022 8pm
Gameweek 12
Marseille
0-1
Lens
Costa (78')
Jan 22, 2022 8pm
Gameweek 22
Lens
0-2
Marseille

Danso (20'), Medina (32'), Sotoca (49')
Payet (34' pen.), Bakambu (77')
Peres (71'), Lirola (86')
Sep 26, 2021 7.45pm
Gameweek 8
Marseille
2-3
Lens
Payet (33', 45+2' pen.)
Gueye (6'), Guendouzi (7')
Sotoca (9' pen.), Frankowski (27'), Said (71')
Said (90+2')
Feb 3, 2021 8pm
Gameweek 23
Lens
2-2
Marseille
Sotoca (46'), Medina (61')
Fofana (43'), Doucoure (48'), Medina (63'), Jean (90+2')
Thauvin (37'), Milik (45+2')
Lirola (60'), Gonzalez (90+1')
rhs 2.0
Today's games header
FT
Bengals
34-35
Ravens
Tables header RHS
TeamPWDLFAGDPTS
1Paris Saint-GermainPSG108202982126
2Marseille1062223121120
3MonacoMonaco10622157820
4Lille10532169718
5Nice104421991016
6Lyon104331715215
7Lens1035297214
8Reims104241615114
9StrasbourgStrasbourg103431919013
10Auxerre104151718-113
11Brest104151316-313
12Toulouse103341111012
13Rennes103251316-311
14NantesNantes102441214-210
15Angers102441116-510
16Saint-EtienneSt Etienne103161024-1410
17Le HavreLe Havre10307820-129
18Montpellier HSCMontpellier10118830-224


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