Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Santa Clara win with a probability of 43.4%. A win for Nacional had a probability of 30.42% and a draw had a probability of 26.2%.
The most likely scoreline for a Santa Clara win was 0-1 with a probability of 10.79%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (8.91%) and 0-2 (7.72%). The likeliest Nacional win was 1-0 (8.7%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.45%). The actual scoreline of 2-0 was predicted with a 5% likelihood.
Result | ||
Nacional | Draw | Santa Clara |
30.42% ( 0.65) | 26.18% ( 0.22) | 43.4% ( -0.87) |
Both teams to score 52.09% ( -0.36) |
Goals |
Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
47.77% ( -0.62) | 52.23% ( 0.62) |
Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
26.06% ( -0.54) | 73.94% ( 0.54) |
Nacional Goals |
Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
68.45% ( 0.15) | 31.55% ( -0.15) |
Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
32.05% ( 0.17) | 67.95% ( -0.17) |
Santa Clara Goals |
Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
76.09% ( -0.69) | 23.91% ( 0.69) |
Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
41.88% ( -1) | 58.12% ( 1) |
Score Analysis |
Nacional | Draw | Santa Clara |
1-0 @ 8.7% ( 0.25) 2-1 @ 7.18% ( 0.09) 2-0 @ 5.02% ( 0.16) 3-1 @ 2.76% ( 0.04) 3-2 @ 1.98% ( -0.01) 3-0 @ 1.93% ( 0.07) Other @ 2.85% Total : 30.42% | 1-1 @ 12.45% ( 0.11) 0-0 @ 7.54% ( 0.18) 2-2 @ 5.14% ( -0.04) 3-3 @ 0.94% ( -0.02) Other @ 0.1% Total : 26.18% | 0-1 @ 10.79% ( 0.05) 1-2 @ 8.91% ( -0.11) 0-2 @ 7.72% ( -0.12) 1-3 @ 4.25% ( -0.14) 0-3 @ 3.68% ( -0.14) 2-3 @ 2.45% ( -0.07) 1-4 @ 1.52% ( -0.08) 0-4 @ 1.32% ( -0.08) Other @ 2.76% Total : 43.4% |
Team | P | W | D | L | F | A | GD | PTS | |
1 | Sporting Lisbon | 14 | 12 | 0 | 2 | 43 | 10 | 33 | 36 |
2 | Porto | 14 | 11 | 1 | 2 | 33 | 9 | 24 | 34 |
3 | Benfica | 13 | 10 | 2 | 1 | 32 | 8 | 24 | 32 |
4 | Santa ClaraSanta Clara | 14 | 9 | 0 | 5 | 16 | 13 | 3 | 27 |
5 | Braga | 14 | 7 | 4 | 3 | 25 | 16 | 9 | 25 |
6 | Vitoria de GuimaraesGuimaraes | 14 | 6 | 4 | 4 | 18 | 14 | 4 | 22 |
7 | MoreirenseMoreirense | 14 | 6 | 2 | 6 | 19 | 19 | 0 | 20 |
8 | FamalicaoFamalicao | 14 | 4 | 7 | 3 | 17 | 15 | 2 | 19 |
9 | Casa Pia | 14 | 4 | 5 | 5 | 13 | 17 | -4 | 17 |
10 | Gil Vicente | 14 | 4 | 4 | 6 | 17 | 24 | -7 | 16 |
11 | Rio AveRio Ave | 14 | 4 | 4 | 6 | 15 | 25 | -10 | 16 |
12 | Estoril PraiaEstoril | 14 | 3 | 5 | 6 | 12 | 21 | -9 | 14 |
13 | Nacional | 13 | 3 | 3 | 7 | 8 | 17 | -9 | 12 |
14 | AVS | 14 | 2 | 6 | 6 | 11 | 22 | -11 | 12 |
15 | Estrela Amadora | 14 | 3 | 3 | 8 | 12 | 24 | -12 | 12 |
16 | BoavistaBoavista | 14 | 2 | 5 | 7 | 10 | 19 | -9 | 11 |
17 | AroucaArouca | 14 | 3 | 2 | 9 | 8 | 23 | -15 | 11 |
18 | SC FarenseFarense | 14 | 2 | 3 | 9 | 7 | 20 | -13 | 9 |
> Primeira Liga Full Table |