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League One
Stevenage
League One | Gameweek 46
Apr 27, 2024 at 12.30pm UK
The Lamex Stadium
Cheltenham Town

Stevenage
2 - 1
Cheltenham

Hemmings (45+1' pen.), Freeman (90')
Roberts (50'), Thompson (74')
FT(HT: 1-0)
Taylor (53')
Nuttall (45+3'), Thomas (51'), Shepherd (84')

The Match

Preview

Sports Mole previews Saturday's League One clash between Stevenage and Cheltenham Town, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

Form, Standings, Stats

Stevenage

All competitions
Last Game: Oxford Utd 1-1 Stevenage
Friday, April 19 at 8pm in League One

Cheltenham Town

All competitions
Last Game: Cheltenham 2-0 Peterborough
Tuesday, April 23 at 7.45pm in League One

We said: Stevenage 0-2 Cheltenham Town

 A quick glance at the league table would suggest that Stevenage, at home, should be firm favourites for this match, but strange things can happen on the final day, and Cheltenham's needs are far greater than that of their hosts. The Robins have won two of their last three - including a huge win over promotion-chasing Peterborough in midweek - and so should be full of belief heading into this match, despite matters being firmly out of their hands. Stevenage have only won one of their last 11 games and have nothing to fight for, so we are expecting the visitors to hold up their end of the bargain in their bid to pull off one of the greatest escapes in EFL history. Whether it will be enough will depend on results elsewhere. Read more.

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Stevenage win with a probability of 54.41%. A draw had a probability of 25.1% and a win for Cheltenham Town had a probability of 20.45%.

The most likely scoreline for a Stevenage win was 1-0 with a probability of 13.63%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (10.83%) and 2-1 (9.39%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (11.81%), while for a Cheltenham Town win it was 0-1 (7.43%). The actual scoreline of 2-1 was predicted with a 9.4% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Stevenage would win this match.

Result
StevenageDrawCheltenham Town
54.41% (-0.114 -0.11) 25.14% (0.027999999999999 0.03) 20.45% (0.084 0.08)
Both teams to score 46.14% (0.042000000000002 0.04)
Goals
Over 2.5Under 2.5
44.49% (-0.0050000000000026 -0.01)55.5% (0.0060000000000002 0.01)
Over 3.5Under 3.5
23.31% (-0.0040000000000013 -0)76.69% (0.0040000000000049 0)
Stevenage Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
79.6% (-0.049000000000007 -0.05)20.4% (0.048999999999999 0.05)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
47.18% (-0.075000000000003 -0.08)52.82% (0.076000000000001 0.08)
Cheltenham Town Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
57.96% (0.088000000000001 0.09)42.04% (-0.088999999999999 -0.09)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
21.53% (0.076000000000001 0.08)78.47% (-0.076999999999998 -0.08)
Score Analysis
    Stevenage 54.4%
    Cheltenham Town 20.45%
    Draw 25.13%
StevenageDrawCheltenham Town
1-0 @ 13.63% (-0.0099999999999998 -0.01)
2-0 @ 10.83% (-0.029999999999999 -0.03)
2-1 @ 9.39% (-0.0030000000000001 -0)
3-0 @ 5.74% (-0.024 -0.02)
3-1 @ 4.98% (-0.0090000000000003 -0.01)
4-0 @ 2.28% (-0.013 -0.01)
3-2 @ 2.16% (0.0010000000000003 0)
4-1 @ 1.98% (-0.006 -0.01)
Other @ 3.42%
Total : 54.4%
1-1 @ 11.81% (0.020000000000001 0.02)
0-0 @ 8.57% (0.0020000000000007 0)
2-2 @ 4.07% (0.0090000000000003 0.01)
Other @ 0.68%
Total : 25.13%
0-1 @ 7.43% (0.02 0.02)
1-2 @ 5.12% (0.018000000000001 0.02)
0-2 @ 3.22% (0.016 0.02)
1-3 @ 1.48% (0.0089999999999999 0.01)
2-3 @ 1.18% (0.0050000000000001 0.01)
0-3 @ 0.93% (0.007 0.01)
Other @ 1.1%
Total : 20.45%

How you voted: Stevenage vs Cheltenham

Stevenage
40.0%
Draw
10.0%
Cheltenham Town
50.0%
10
Head to Head
Sep 23, 2023 3pm
Gameweek 9
Cheltenham
0-3
Stevenage

Keena (30')
Roberts (7'), List (69', 73')
Thompson (45+3')
Apr 20, 2021 7pm
Gameweek 43
Stevenage
0-1
Cheltenham
Lloyd (43')
Dec 26, 2020 3pm
Gameweek 20
Cheltenham
1-1
Stevenage
Sercombe (28')
Aitchison (80')
Vancooten (61')
Apr 18, 2020 3pm
Gameweek 45
Stevenage
P-P
Cheltenham
Sep 7, 2019 3pm
Gameweek 7
Cheltenham
4-2
Stevenage
Reilly (22'), Long (57'), Broom (80'), Addai (91')
Newton (48', 72')
rhs 2.0
Today's games header
> View full version> Yesterday's results
Tables header RHS
TeamPWDLFAGDPTS
1Birmingham CityBirmingham27196246192763
2Wycombe WanderersWycombe29178455302559
3Wrexham29167643251855
4Stockport CountyStockport29148744281650
5Huddersfield TownHuddersfield28146841261548
6Leyton Orient281351040251544
7Charlton AthleticCharlton2812883628844
8Reading28135104341244
9Bolton WanderersBolton29135114343044
10Barnsley29127104139243
11Stevenage2711792725240
12Lincoln CityLincoln29109103534139
13Blackpool2891184140138
14Mansfield TownMansfield27114123534137
15Rotherham UnitedRotherham28107113333037
16Wigan AthleticWigan2897122728-134
17Exeter CityExeter2995153346-1332
18Peterborough UnitedPeterborough2886144452-830
19Northampton TownNorthampton2979132845-1730
20Bristol Rovers2784152543-1828
21Burton Albion29510143044-1425
22Crawley TownCrawley2766152748-2124
23Shrewsbury TownShrewsbury2865172848-2023
24Cambridge UnitedCambridge2857162950-2122
> League One Full Table


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