Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Sutton United win with a probability of 48.33%. A win for Oldham Athletic had a probability of 25.86% and a draw had a probability of 25.8%.
The most likely scoreline for a Sutton United win was 0-1 with a probability of 11.86%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (9.27%) and 0-2 (8.97%). The likeliest Oldham Athletic win was 1-0 (8.1%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.25%). The actual scoreline of 1-3 was predicted with a 4.7% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Sutton United would win this match.