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Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Bayer Leverkusen win with a probability of 60.2%. A draw had a probability of 20.9% and a win for Freiburg had a probability of 18.93%.
The most likely scoreline for a Bayer Leverkusen win was 1-2 with a probability of 9.93%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-2 (9.36%) and 0-1 (9.12%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (9.68%), while for a Freiburg win it was 2-1 (5.14%). The actual scoreline of 2-3 was predicted with a 3.6% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Bayer Leverkusen would win this match.
Result | ||
Freiburg | Draw | Bayer Leverkusen |
18.93% ( -1.38) | 20.87% ( -0.6) | 60.2% ( 1.98) |
Both teams to score 56.99% ( -0.33) |
Goals |
Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
60.16% ( 0.69) | 39.84% ( -0.69) |
Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
37.8% ( 0.71) | 62.19% ( -0.71) |
Freiburg Goals |
Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
65.4% ( -1) | 34.6% ( 1) |
Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
28.68% ( -1.08) | 71.32% ( 1.08) |
Bayer Leverkusen Goals |
Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
87.14% ( 0.81) | 12.85% ( -0.81) |
Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
60.77% ( 1.64) | 39.22% ( -1.64) |
Score Analysis |
Freiburg | Draw | Bayer Leverkusen |
2-1 @ 5.14% ( -0.3) 1-0 @ 4.72% ( -0.29) 2-0 @ 2.51% ( -0.23) 3-2 @ 1.87% ( -0.1) 3-1 @ 1.82% ( -0.16) Other @ 2.88% Total : 18.93% | 1-1 @ 9.68% ( -0.28) 2-2 @ 5.27% ( -0.14) 0-0 @ 4.45% ( -0.14) 3-3 @ 1.28% ( -0.03) Other @ 0.19% Total : 20.87% | 1-2 @ 9.93% ( 0.01) 0-2 @ 9.36% ( 0.27) 0-1 @ 9.12% ( -0.01) 1-3 @ 6.79% ( 0.21) 0-3 @ 6.4% ( 0.37) 2-3 @ 3.61% ( 0.02) 1-4 @ 3.48% ( 0.21) 0-4 @ 3.28% ( 0.28) 2-4 @ 1.85% ( 0.06) 1-5 @ 1.43% ( 0.13) 0-5 @ 1.35% ( 0.15) Other @ 3.6% Total : 60.2% |
Team | P | W | D | L | F | A | GD | PTS | |
1 | Bayern MunichBayern | 18 | 14 | 3 | 1 | 56 | 15 | 41 | 45 |
2 | Bayer LeverkusenB. Leverkusen | 18 | 12 | 5 | 1 | 44 | 24 | 20 | 41 |
3 | Eintracht FrankfurtFrankfurt | 18 | 11 | 3 | 4 | 42 | 24 | 18 | 36 |
4 | Stuttgart | 18 | 9 | 5 | 4 | 36 | 26 | 10 | 32 |
5 | RB Leipzig | 18 | 9 | 4 | 5 | 32 | 27 | 5 | 31 |
6 | Mainz 05Mainz | 17 | 8 | 4 | 5 | 30 | 21 | 9 | 28 |
7 | Wolfsburg | 18 | 8 | 3 | 7 | 40 | 32 | 8 | 27 |
8 | Freiburg | 18 | 8 | 3 | 7 | 25 | 34 | -9 | 27 |
9 | Werder Bremen | 17 | 7 | 5 | 5 | 31 | 32 | -1 | 26 |
10 | Borussia DortmundDortmund | 18 | 7 | 4 | 7 | 32 | 31 | 1 | 25 |
11 | Borussia MonchengladbachBorussia M'bach | 18 | 7 | 3 | 8 | 27 | 29 | -2 | 24 |
12 | Augsburg | 17 | 5 | 4 | 8 | 19 | 33 | -14 | 19 |
13 | St Pauli | 18 | 5 | 2 | 11 | 14 | 21 | -7 | 17 |
14 | Union BerlinUnion Berlin | 17 | 4 | 5 | 8 | 14 | 23 | -9 | 17 |
15 | Hoffenheim | 18 | 4 | 5 | 9 | 23 | 35 | -12 | 17 |
16 | Heidenheim | 18 | 4 | 2 | 12 | 23 | 38 | -15 | 14 |
17 | Holstein Kiel | 18 | 3 | 2 | 13 | 26 | 46 | -20 | 11 |
18 | VfL BochumVfL Bochum | 18 | 2 | 4 | 12 | 17 | 40 | -23 | 10 |
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