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Bundesliga
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Bundesliga | Gameweek 25
Mar 9, 2024 at 2.30pm UK
Allianz Arena
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Bayern
8 - 1
Mainz

Kane (13', 45+7', 70'), Goretzka (19', 90+2'), Muller (47'), Musiala (61'), Gnabry (66')
Laimer (5')
FT(HT: 3-1)
Amiri (31')
Widmer (84')

The Match

Preview

Sports Mole previews Saturday's Bundesliga clash between Bayern Munich and Mainz 05, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

Form, Standings, Stats

Bayern Munich

All competitions
Bundesliga
Last Game: Bayern 3-0 Lazio
Tuesday, March 5 at 8pm in Champions League

Mainz 05

All competitions
Last Game: Mainz 1-1 Borussia M'bach
Saturday, March 2 at 2.30pm in Bundesliga

We said: Bayern Munich 4-1 Mainz 05

 Bayern will enter Saturday's contest as firm favourites, but they are aware that there is no room for error from now until the end of the season if they are to keep their slim hopes of retaining the Bundesliga title alive. Mainz cannot be written off entirely as they are fighting for their lives at the wrong end of the table and have marginally improved under Henriksen, but Bayern should ultimately have the firepower to outscore their opponents en route to a comfortable victory. Read more.

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Bayern Munich win with a probability of 82.44%. A draw had a probability of 11.5% and a win for Mainz 05 had a probability of 6.03%.

The most likely scoreline for a Bayern Munich win was 2-0 with a probability of 11.27%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 3-0 (11.07%) and 4-0 (8.15%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (5.39%), while for a Mainz 05 win it was 1-2 (1.9%). The actual scoreline of 8-1 was predicted with a 0.3% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Bayern Munich would win this match.

Result
Bayern MunichDrawMainz 05
82.44% (0.070999999999998 0.07) 11.53% (-0.044 -0.04) 6.03% (-0.0271 -0.03)
Both teams to score 47.9% (0.018000000000001 0.02)
Goals
Over 2.5Under 2.5
70.6% (0.108 0.11)29.4% (-0.106 -0.11)
Over 3.5Under 3.5
49.53% (0.13 0.13)50.47% (-0.13 -0.13)
Bayern Munich Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
94.74% (0.034000000000006 0.03)5.26% (-0.032 -0.03)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
79.25% (0.096000000000004 0.1)20.75% (-0.094999999999999 -0.09)
Mainz 05 Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
50.56% (0.0030000000000001 0)49.44%
Over 1.5Under 1.5
15.74% (0.0040000000000013 0)84.26% (-0.0010000000000048 -0)
Score Analysis
    Bayern Munich 82.43%
    Mainz 05 6.03%
    Draw 11.53%
Bayern MunichDrawMainz 05
2-0 @ 11.27% (-0.02 -0.02)
3-0 @ 11.07% (0.0099999999999998 0.01)
4-0 @ 8.15% (0.018000000000001 0.02)
2-1 @ 7.94% (-0.016 -0.02)
3-1 @ 7.8% (0.0010000000000003 0)
1-0 @ 7.66% (-0.031 -0.03)
4-1 @ 5.74% (0.012 0.01)
5-0 @ 4.8% (0.02 0.02)
5-1 @ 3.38% (0.015 0.02)
3-2 @ 2.75%
6-0 @ 2.36% (0.015 0.02)
4-2 @ 2.02% (0.0050000000000003 0.01)
6-1 @ 1.66% (0.01 0.01)
5-2 @ 1.19% (0.006 0.01)
7-0 @ 0.99% (0.009 0.01)
Other @ 3.64%
Total : 82.43%
1-1 @ 5.39% (-0.022 -0.02)
2-2 @ 2.8% (-0.0059999999999998 -0.01)
0-0 @ 2.6% (-0.016 -0.02)
Other @ 0.74%
Total : 11.53%
1-2 @ 1.9% (-0.008 -0.01)
0-1 @ 1.83% (-0.012 -0.01)
Other @ 2.3%
Total : 6.03%

How you voted: Bayern vs Mainz

Bayern Munich
88.1%
Draw
10.7%
Mainz 05
1.2%
84
Head to Head
Oct 21, 2023 5.30pm
Gameweek 8
Mainz
1-3
Bayern
Caci (43')
Ajorque (45+2'), Kohr (49'), Bell (65')
Coman (11'), Kane (16'), Goretzka (59')
de Ligt (27'), Laimer (90+1')
> Preview
Apr 22, 2023 2.30pm
Gameweek 29
Mainz
3-1
Bayern
Ajorque (65'), Barreiro (73'), Caricol (79')
Mane (29')
> Preview
Feb 1, 2023 7.45pm
Round of 16
Mainz
0-4
Bayern
Maxim Choupo-Moting (17'), Musiala (30'), Sane (44'), Davies (83')
> Preview
Oct 29, 2022 2.30pm
Gameweek 12
Bayern
6-2
Mainz
Gnabry (5'), Musiala (28'), Mane (43'), Goretzka (58'), Tel (79'), Maxim Choupo-Moting (86')
Widmer (45+4'), Ingvartsen (82')
> Preview
Apr 30, 2022 2.30pm
Gameweek 32
Mainz
3-1
Bayern
Burkardt (18'), Niakhate (27'), Barreiro (57')
Lewandowski (33')
Kimmich (43'), Hernandez (65'), Pavard (73'), Sane (86')
> Preview
rhs 2.0
Today's games header
> View full version> Yesterday's results
Tables header RHS
TeamPWDLFAGDPTS
1Bayern MunichBayern108203372626
2RB Leipzig106311551021
3Eintracht FrankfurtFrankfurt1062226161020
4Bayer LeverkusenB. Leverkusen104512116517
5Freiburg105231311217
6Union BerlinUnion Berlin1044298116
7Borussia DortmundDortmund105141818016
8Werder Bremen104331721-415
9Borussia MonchengladbachBorussia M'bach104241514114
10Mainz 05Mainz103431514113
11Stuttgart103431919013
12Wolfsburg103341918112
13Augsburg103341320-712
14Heidenheim103161315-210
15Hoffenheim102351319-69
16St Pauli10226712-58
17Holstein Kiel101271225-135
18VfL BochumVfL Bochum100281030-202
> Bundesliga Full Table


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