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Bundesliga
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Bundesliga | Gameweek 25
Mar 9, 2024 at 2.30pm UK
Allianz Arena
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Bayern
8 - 1
Mainz

Kane (13', 45+7', 70'), Goretzka (19', 90+2'), Muller (47'), Musiala (61'), Gnabry (66')
Laimer (5')
FT(HT: 3-1)
Amiri (31')
Widmer (84')

The Match

Preview

Sports Mole previews Saturday's Bundesliga clash between Bayern Munich and Mainz 05, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

Form, Standings, Stats

Bayern Munich

All competitions
Bundesliga
Last Game: Bayern 3-0 Lazio
Tuesday, March 5 at 8pm in Champions League

Mainz 05

All competitions
Last Game: Mainz 1-1 Borussia M'bach
Saturday, March 2 at 2.30pm in Bundesliga

We said: Bayern Munich 4-1 Mainz 05

 Bayern will enter Saturday's contest as firm favourites, but they are aware that there is no room for error from now until the end of the season if they are to keep their slim hopes of retaining the Bundesliga title alive. Mainz cannot be written off entirely as they are fighting for their lives at the wrong end of the table and have marginally improved under Henriksen, but Bayern should ultimately have the firepower to outscore their opponents en route to a comfortable victory. Read more.

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Bayern Munich win with a probability of 82.44%. A draw had a probability of 11.5% and a win for Mainz 05 had a probability of 6.03%.

The most likely scoreline for a Bayern Munich win was 2-0 with a probability of 11.27%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 3-0 (11.07%) and 4-0 (8.15%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (5.39%), while for a Mainz 05 win it was 1-2 (1.9%). The actual scoreline of 8-1 was predicted with a 0.3% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Bayern Munich would win this match.

Result
Bayern MunichDrawMainz 05
82.44% (0.070999999999998 0.07) 11.53% (-0.044 -0.04) 6.03% (-0.0271 -0.03)
Both teams to score 47.9% (0.018000000000001 0.02)
Goals
Over 2.5Under 2.5
70.6% (0.108 0.11)29.4% (-0.106 -0.11)
Over 3.5Under 3.5
49.53% (0.13 0.13)50.47% (-0.13 -0.13)
Bayern Munich Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
94.74% (0.034000000000006 0.03)5.26% (-0.032 -0.03)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
79.25% (0.096000000000004 0.1)20.75% (-0.094999999999999 -0.09)
Mainz 05 Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
50.56% (0.0030000000000001 0)49.44%
Over 1.5Under 1.5
15.74% (0.0040000000000013 0)84.26% (-0.0010000000000048 -0)
Score Analysis
    Bayern Munich 82.43%
    Mainz 05 6.03%
    Draw 11.53%
Bayern MunichDrawMainz 05
2-0 @ 11.27% (-0.02 -0.02)
3-0 @ 11.07% (0.0099999999999998 0.01)
4-0 @ 8.15% (0.018000000000001 0.02)
2-1 @ 7.94% (-0.016 -0.02)
3-1 @ 7.8% (0.0010000000000003 0)
1-0 @ 7.66% (-0.031 -0.03)
4-1 @ 5.74% (0.012 0.01)
5-0 @ 4.8% (0.02 0.02)
5-1 @ 3.38% (0.015 0.02)
3-2 @ 2.75%
6-0 @ 2.36% (0.015 0.02)
4-2 @ 2.02% (0.0050000000000003 0.01)
6-1 @ 1.66% (0.01 0.01)
5-2 @ 1.19% (0.006 0.01)
7-0 @ 0.99% (0.009 0.01)
Other @ 3.64%
Total : 82.43%
1-1 @ 5.39% (-0.022 -0.02)
2-2 @ 2.8% (-0.0059999999999998 -0.01)
0-0 @ 2.6% (-0.016 -0.02)
Other @ 0.74%
Total : 11.53%
1-2 @ 1.9% (-0.008 -0.01)
0-1 @ 1.83% (-0.012 -0.01)
Other @ 2.3%
Total : 6.03%

How you voted: Bayern vs Mainz

Bayern Munich
88.1%
Draw
10.7%
Mainz 05
1.2%
84
Head to Head
Oct 21, 2023 5.30pm
Gameweek 8
Mainz
1-3
Bayern
Caci (43')
Ajorque (45+2'), Kohr (49'), Bell (65')
Coman (11'), Kane (16'), Goretzka (59')
de Ligt (27'), Laimer (90+1')
> Preview
Apr 22, 2023 2.30pm
Gameweek 29
Mainz
3-1
Bayern
Ajorque (65'), Barreiro (73'), Caricol (79')
Mane (29')
> Preview
Feb 1, 2023 7.45pm
Round of 16
Mainz
0-4
Bayern
Maxim Choupo-Moting (17'), Musiala (30'), Sane (44'), Davies (83')
> Preview
Oct 29, 2022 2.30pm
Gameweek 12
Bayern
6-2
Mainz
Gnabry (5'), Musiala (28'), Mane (43'), Goretzka (58'), Tel (79'), Maxim Choupo-Moting (86')
Widmer (45+4'), Ingvartsen (82')
> Preview
Apr 30, 2022 2.30pm
Gameweek 32
Mainz
3-1
Bayern
Burkardt (18'), Niakhate (27'), Barreiro (57')
Lewandowski (33')
Kimmich (43'), Hernandez (65'), Pavard (73'), Sane (86')
> Preview
rhs 2.0
Today's games header
> View full version> Yesterday's results
Tables header RHS
TeamPWDLFAGDPTS
1Bayern MunichBayern15113147133436
2Bayer LeverkusenB. Leverkusen1595137211632
3Eintracht FrankfurtFrankfurt1583435231227
4RB Leipzig158342420427
5Mainz 05Mainz157442820825
6Borussia DortmundDortmund157442822625
7Werder Bremen157442625125
8Borussia MonchengladbachBorussia M'bach157352520524
9Freiburg157352124-324
10Stuttgart156542925423
11Wolfsburg156363228421
12Union BerlinUnion Berlin154561419-517
13Augsburg154471732-1516
14St Pauli154291219-714
15Hoffenheim153572028-814
16Heidenheim1531111833-1510
17Holstein Kiel1522111938-198
18VfL BochumVfL Bochum1513111335-226
> Bundesliga Full Table


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