League One | Gameweek 23
Dec 21, 2023 at 7.45pm UK
Pride Park Stadium
Derby3 - 1Lincoln
Form, Standings, Stats
Last Game: Derby 1-1 Wycombe
Saturday, December 16 at 3pm in League One
Saturday, December 16 at 3pm in League One
Last Game: Lincoln 1-1 Reading
Saturday, December 16 at 3pm in League One
Saturday, December 16 at 3pm in League One
We said: Derby County 2-1 Lincoln City
With both teams having put together lengthy unbeaten streaks, this should be a competitive fixture. Lincoln will fancy their chances of collecting at least a point, but we feel that the Rams are playing with enough confidence to edge this contest by the odd goal in three. Read more.Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Derby County win with a probability of 66.02%. A draw had a probability of 20.8% and a win for Lincoln City had a probability of 13.14%.
The most likely scoreline for a Derby County win was 1-0 with a probability of 13.57%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (13.12%) and 2-1 (9.49%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (9.81%), while for a Lincoln City win it was 0-1 (5.07%). The actual scoreline of 3-1 was predicted with a 6.1% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Derby County would win this match.
| Result | ||
| Derby County | Draw | Lincoln City |
66.02% ( 0.01) | 20.84% ( -0) | 13.14% ( -0.01) |
| Both teams to score 44.02% ( -0.02) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
