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League One
Exeter City
League One | Gameweek 33
Feb 13, 2024 at 7.45pm UK
St James Park
Derby logo

Exeter
0 - 3
Derby


Aitchison (49'), Carroll (72')
FT(HT: 0-1)
Bird (24'), Mendez-Laing (52'), Barkhuizen (62')
Mendez-Laing (26'), Adams (43'), Cashin (68')

The Match

Preview

Sports Mole previews Tuesday's League One clash between Exeter City and Derby County, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

Form, Standings, Stats

Exeter City

All competitions
Last Game: Wigan 1-2 Exeter
Saturday, February 10 at 3pm in League One

Derby County

All competitions
Last Game: Derby 1-1 Shrewsbury
Saturday, February 10 at 3pm in League One

We said: Exeter City 0-2 Derby County

 Promotion-chasing Derby are set to go up against an in-form Exeter side, but after winning their last two head-to-head meetings, we think that the Rams will do enough to claim all three points on Tuesday. Read more.

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Derby County win with a probability of 57.16%. A draw had a probability of 23% and a win for Exeter City had a probability of 19.84%.

The most likely scoreline for a Derby County win was 0-1 with a probability of 11.4%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-2 (10.26%) and 1-2 (9.84%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (10.93%), while for a Exeter City win it was 1-0 (6.07%). The actual scoreline of 0-3 was predicted with a 6.2% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Derby County would win this match.

Result
Exeter CityDrawDerby County
19.84% (0.184 0.18) 23% (-0.074999999999999 -0.07) 57.16% (-0.10400000000001 -0.1)
Both teams to score 51.48% (0.527 0.53)
Goals
Over 2.5Under 2.5
52.08% (0.554 0.55)47.93% (-0.55 -0.55)
Over 3.5Under 3.5
29.9% (0.508 0.51)70.1% (-0.503 -0.5)
Exeter City Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
61.67% (0.517 0.52)38.33% (-0.511 -0.51)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
24.91% (0.492 0.49)75.09% (-0.486 -0.49)
Derby County Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
83.48% (0.16200000000001 0.16)16.53% (-0.157 -0.16)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
53.73% (0.28899999999999 0.29)46.27% (-0.284 -0.28)
Score Analysis
    Exeter City 19.84%
    Derby County 57.15%
    Draw 22.99%
Exeter CityDrawDerby County
1-0 @ 6.07% (-0.054 -0.05)
2-1 @ 5.24% (0.054 0.05)
2-0 @ 2.91% (0.015 0.02)
3-1 @ 1.68% (0.04 0.04)
3-2 @ 1.51% (0.044 0.04)
3-0 @ 0.93% (0.018 0.02)
Other @ 1.5%
Total : 19.84%
1-1 @ 10.93% (-0.040000000000001 -0.04)
0-0 @ 6.33% (-0.146 -0.15)
2-2 @ 4.72% (0.073 0.07)
3-3 @ 0.91% (0.031 0.03)
Other @ 0.11%
Total : 22.99%
0-1 @ 11.4% (-0.2 -0.2)
0-2 @ 10.26% (-0.13 -0.13)
1-2 @ 9.84% (0.016999999999999 0.02)
0-3 @ 6.16% (-0.042000000000001 -0.04)
1-3 @ 5.91% (0.042 0.04)
2-3 @ 2.83% (0.059 0.06)
0-4 @ 2.77% (-0.004 -0)
1-4 @ 2.66% (0.033 0.03)
2-4 @ 1.28% (0.033 0.03)
0-5 @ 1% (0.003 0)
1-5 @ 0.96% (0.017 0.02)
Other @ 2.09%
Total : 57.15%

How you voted: Exeter vs Derby

Exeter City
15.8%
Draw
13.2%
Derby County
71.1%
38
Head to Head
Oct 24, 2023 7.45pm
Gameweek 15
Derby
2-0
Exeter
Mendez-Laing (30'), Washington (79')
Hourihane (34'), Sibley (55')

Watts (62')
> Preview
Apr 18, 2023 7.45pm
Gameweek 43
Exeter
1-2
Derby
Sparkes (78')
McGoldrick (52', 76')
> Preview
Oct 25, 2022 7.45pm
Gameweek 13
Derby
0-0
Exeter
rhs 2.0
Today's games header
> View full version> Yesterday's results
Tables header RHS
TeamPWDLFAGDPTS
1Wycombe WanderersWycombe14102232161632
2Birmingham CityBirmingham1393124121230
3Wrexham1584322111128
4Stockport CountyStockport167632617927
5Barnsley157532419526
6Lincoln CityLincoln157532117426
7Mansfield TownMansfield137332015524
8Huddersfield TownHuddersfield147252114723
9Exeter CityExeter147251410423
10Reading147252221123
11Bolton WanderersBolton147252224-223
12Peterborough UnitedPeterborough156363127421
13Charlton AthleticCharlton145451515019
14Bristol Rovers155371621-518
15Stevenage155371116-518
16Northampton TownNorthampton154561821-317
17Rotherham UnitedRotherham154561418-417
18Blackpool154562128-717
19Wigan AthleticWigan143561212014
20Leyton Orient144281418-414
21Crawley TownCrawley163491427-1313
22Cambridge UnitedCambridge143291324-1111
23Burton Albion141581525-108
24Shrewsbury TownShrewsbury1522111327-148
> League One Full Table


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