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Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a MK Dons win with a probability of 44.86%. A win for Cheltenham Town had a probability of 30.96% and a draw had a probability of 24.2%.
The most likely scoreline for a MK Dons win was 2-1 with a probability of 9.19%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (8.52%) and 2-0 (6.96%). The likeliest Cheltenham Town win was 1-2 (7.42%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.24%). The actual scoreline of 3-2 was predicted with a 3.3% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that MK Dons would win this match.
Result | ||
MK Dons | Draw | Cheltenham Town |
44.86% ( -0.55) | 24.18% ( -0.02) | 30.96% ( 0.58) |
Both teams to score 58.98% ( 0.4) |
Goals |
Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
56.65% ( 0.39) | 43.35% ( -0.39) |
Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
34.25% ( 0.38) | 65.75% ( -0.38) |
MK Dons Goals |
Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
80.5% ( -0.08) | 19.5% ( 0.08) |
Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
48.62% ( -0.13) | 51.38% ( 0.13) |
Cheltenham Town Goals |
Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
73.27% ( 0.57) | 26.73% ( -0.57) |
Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
38.01% ( 0.74) | 61.99% ( -0.74) |
Score Analysis |
MK Dons | Draw | Cheltenham Town |
2-1 @ 9.19% ( -0.05) 1-0 @ 8.52% ( -0.17) 2-0 @ 6.96% ( -0.15) 3-1 @ 5.01% ( -0.04) 3-0 @ 3.8% ( -0.09) 3-2 @ 3.3% ( 0.03) 4-1 @ 2.05% ( -0.02) 4-0 @ 1.55% ( -0.04) 4-2 @ 1.35% ( 0.01) Other @ 3.13% Total : 44.86% | 1-1 @ 11.24% ( -0.04) 2-2 @ 6.06% ( 0.06) 0-0 @ 5.21% ( -0.09) 3-3 @ 1.45% ( 0.03) Other @ 0.21% Total : 24.18% | 1-2 @ 7.42% ( 0.09) 0-1 @ 6.88% ( -0.01) 0-2 @ 4.54% ( 0.07) 1-3 @ 3.26% ( 0.09) 2-3 @ 2.67% ( 0.07) 0-3 @ 2% ( 0.06) 1-4 @ 1.08% ( 0.05) Other @ 3.12% Total : 30.96% |
Team | P | W | D | L | F | A | GD | PTS | |
1 | Port Vale | 16 | 10 | 3 | 3 | 24 | 16 | 8 | 33 |
2 | Crewe AlexandraCrewe | 15 | 8 | 4 | 3 | 19 | 13 | 6 | 28 |
3 | Doncaster RoversDoncaster | 16 | 8 | 4 | 4 | 22 | 18 | 4 | 28 |
4 | Walsall | 14 | 8 | 3 | 3 | 27 | 15 | 12 | 27 |
5 | MK Dons | 16 | 8 | 3 | 5 | 27 | 19 | 8 | 27 |
6 | Notts County | 16 | 7 | 6 | 3 | 23 | 15 | 8 | 27 |
7 | Grimsby Town | 16 | 8 | 1 | 7 | 19 | 25 | -6 | 25 |
8 | Bradford CityBradford | 16 | 6 | 5 | 5 | 21 | 17 | 4 | 23 |
9 | Gillingham | 15 | 7 | 2 | 6 | 16 | 12 | 4 | 23 |
10 | AFC Wimbledon | 13 | 7 | 1 | 5 | 21 | 11 | 10 | 22 |
11 | Chesterfield | 16 | 5 | 7 | 4 | 29 | 20 | 9 | 22 |
12 | BarrowBarrow | 16 | 6 | 4 | 6 | 17 | 15 | 2 | 22 |
13 | Fleetwood TownFleetwood | 14 | 5 | 6 | 3 | 20 | 15 | 5 | 21 |
14 | Salford City | 16 | 5 | 6 | 5 | 15 | 18 | -3 | 21 |
15 | Newport CountyNewport | 16 | 6 | 2 | 8 | 19 | 26 | -7 | 20 |
16 | Cheltenham TownCheltenham | 16 | 5 | 3 | 8 | 21 | 25 | -4 | 18 |
17 | Harrogate TownHarrogate | 16 | 5 | 3 | 8 | 14 | 22 | -8 | 18 |
18 | Accrington StanleyAccrington | 15 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 20 | 24 | -4 | 17 |
19 | Tranmere RoversTranmere | 14 | 4 | 5 | 5 | 10 | 17 | -7 | 17 |
20 | Bromley | 15 | 3 | 7 | 5 | 17 | 19 | -2 | 16 |
21 | Colchester UnitedColchester | 15 | 2 | 8 | 5 | 18 | 22 | -4 | 14 |
22 | Swindon TownSwindon | 16 | 2 | 7 | 7 | 18 | 25 | -7 | 13 |
23 | Carlisle UnitedCarlisle | 16 | 3 | 3 | 10 | 14 | 29 | -15 | 12 |
24 | Morecambe | 16 | 2 | 4 | 10 | 14 | 27 | -13 | 10 |
> League Two Full Table |