Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Benfica win with a probability of 77.57%. A draw had a probability of 14.1% and a win for SC Farense had a probability of 8.31%.
The most likely scoreline for a Benfica win was 0-2 with a probability of 11.5%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-3 (10.2%) and 1-2 (8.81%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (6.63%), while for a SC Farense win it was 2-1 (2.54%). The actual scoreline of 1-2 was predicted with an 8.8% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Benfica would win this match.
Result | ||
SC Farense | Draw | Benfica |
8.31% ( -0.03) | 14.12% ( 0.04) | 77.57% ( -0.01) |
Both teams to score 49.75% ( -0.32) |
Goals |
Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
66.51% ( -0.32) | 33.49% ( 0.32) |
Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
44.72% ( -0.36) | 55.28% ( 0.36) |
SC Farense Goals |
Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
53.49% ( -0.3) | 46.51% ( 0.3) |
Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
17.89% ( -0.23) | 82.11% ( 0.23) |
Benfica Goals |
Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
93% ( -0.07) | 6.99% ( 0.07) |
Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
74.4% ( -0.19) | 25.6% ( 0.19) |
Score Analysis |
SC Farense | Draw | Benfica |
2-1 @ 2.54% ( -0.01) 1-0 @ 2.49% ( 0.02) 2-0 @ 0.95% ( -0) Other @ 2.33% Total : 8.31% | 1-1 @ 6.63% ( 0.03) 2-2 @ 3.37% ( -0.03) 0-0 @ 3.25% ( 0.05) Other @ 0.87% Total : 14.12% | 0-2 @ 11.5% ( 0.1) 0-3 @ 10.2% ( 0.05) 1-2 @ 8.81% ( 0.01) 0-1 @ 8.65% ( 0.11) 1-3 @ 7.81% ( -0.02) 0-4 @ 6.79% ( 0.01) 1-4 @ 5.2% ( -0.04) 0-5 @ 3.61% ( -0.01) 2-3 @ 2.99% ( -0.04) 1-5 @ 2.76% ( -0.03) 2-4 @ 1.99% ( -0.03) 0-6 @ 1.6% ( -0.01) 1-6 @ 1.23% ( -0.02) 2-5 @ 1.06% ( -0.02) Other @ 3.36% Total : 77.55% |
Team | P | W | D | L | F | A | GD | PTS | |
1 | Sporting Lisbon | 18 | 14 | 2 | 2 | 51 | 14 | 37 | 44 |
2 | Benfica | 18 | 13 | 2 | 3 | 42 | 11 | 31 | 41 |
3 | Porto | 17 | 13 | 1 | 3 | 40 | 11 | 29 | 40 |
4 | Braga | 17 | 9 | 4 | 4 | 30 | 19 | 11 | 31 |
5 | Santa ClaraSanta Clara | 18 | 10 | 1 | 7 | 20 | 19 | 1 | 31 |
6 | Vitoria de GuimaraesGuimaraes | 18 | 6 | 8 | 4 | 28 | 24 | 4 | 26 |
7 | Casa Pia | 17 | 6 | 6 | 5 | 19 | 20 | -1 | 24 |
8 | MoreirenseMoreirense | 17 | 6 | 4 | 7 | 22 | 25 | -3 | 22 |
9 | Estoril PraiaEstoril | 18 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 21 | 30 | -9 | 21 |
10 | FamalicaoFamalicao | 18 | 4 | 8 | 6 | 20 | 24 | -4 | 20 |
11 | Rio AveRio Ave | 18 | 5 | 5 | 8 | 18 | 31 | -13 | 20 |
12 | Gil Vicente | 17 | 4 | 7 | 6 | 19 | 26 | -7 | 19 |
13 | Nacional | 17 | 4 | 4 | 9 | 13 | 23 | -10 | 16 |
14 | Estrela Amadora | 17 | 4 | 4 | 9 | 16 | 29 | -13 | 16 |
15 | AroucaArouca | 18 | 4 | 4 | 10 | 15 | 30 | -15 | 16 |
16 | AVS | 17 | 2 | 9 | 6 | 13 | 24 | -11 | 15 |
17 | SC FarenseFarense | 17 | 3 | 5 | 9 | 11 | 23 | -12 | 14 |
18 | BoavistaBoavista | 17 | 2 | 6 | 9 | 11 | 26 | -15 | 12 |
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