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EFL Cup
Exeter City
EFL Cup | Round of 16
Oct 31, 2023 at 7.45pm UK
St James Park
Middlesbrough logo

Exeter
2 - 3
Middlesbrough

Trevitt (13', 66')
Trevitt (37'), Caldwell (38'), Kite (75'), Diabate (68')
FT(HT: 1-0)
Rogers (49'), Silvera (59'), Latte Lath (82' pen.)
Silvera (44'), Rogers (75'), Latte Lath (83')

The Match

Preview

Sports Mole previews Tuesday's EFL Cup clash between Exeter City and Middlesbrough, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

Form, Standings, Stats

Exeter City

All competitions
EFL Cup
Last Game: Exeter 1-1 Lincoln
Saturday, October 28 at 3pm in League One

Middlesbrough

All competitions
EFL Cup
Last Game: Middlesbrough 0-2 Stoke
Saturday, October 28 at 3pm in Championship

We said: Exeter City 0-2 Middlesbrough

 Plagued by constant attacking shortcomings and also far from watertight in defence, Exeter's EFL Cup journey appears destined to end at St James Park, even with Boro sure to rotate their injury-hit resources. Carrick acknowledged that his side fell short of their usual standards against Stoke, but we have faith in Boro to get back on track and seal a quarter-final place with minimal fuss. Read more.

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Middlesbrough win with a probability of 56.63%. A draw had a probability of 21.7% and a win for Exeter City had a probability of 21.63%.

The most likely scoreline for a Middlesbrough win was 1-2 with a probability of 9.87%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-1 (8.82%) and 0-2 (8.68%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (10.03%), while for a Exeter City win it was 2-1 (5.71%). The actual scoreline of 2-3 was predicted with a 3.7% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Middlesbrough would win this match.

Result
Exeter CityDrawMiddlesbrough
21.63% (0.028000000000002 0.03) 21.74% (0.013999999999999 0.01) 56.63% (-0.042000000000002 -0.04)
Both teams to score 58.43% (-0.0039999999999978 -0)
Goals
Over 2.5Under 2.5
59.97% (-0.027000000000001 -0.03)40.02% (0.027000000000001 0.03)
Over 3.5Under 3.5
37.61% (-0.029000000000003 -0.03)62.39% (0.027999999999999 0.03)
Exeter City Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
67.93% (0.010999999999996 0.01)32.06% (-0.011000000000003 -0.01)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
31.46% (0.011999999999997 0.01)68.53% (-0.012 -0.01)
Middlesbrough Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
86.01% (-0.021000000000001 -0.02)13.99% (0.020000000000001 0.02)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
58.49% (-0.042999999999999 -0.04)41.5% (0.042999999999999 0.04)
Score Analysis
    Exeter City 21.63%
    Middlesbrough 56.63%
    Draw 21.74%
Exeter CityDrawMiddlesbrough
2-1 @ 5.71% (0.0060000000000002 0.01)
1-0 @ 5.1% (0.008 0.01)
2-0 @ 2.9% (0.0049999999999999 0)
3-1 @ 2.16% (0.0030000000000001 0)
3-2 @ 2.13% (0.0010000000000003 0)
3-0 @ 1.1% (0.002 0)
Other @ 2.52%
Total : 21.63%
1-1 @ 10.03% (0.0099999999999998 0.01)
2-2 @ 5.61% (0.0020000000000007 0)
0-0 @ 4.49% (0.0049999999999999 0)
3-3 @ 1.4% (-0.00099999999999989 -0)
Other @ 0.21%
Total : 21.74%
1-2 @ 9.87%
0-1 @ 8.82% (0.0039999999999996 0)
0-2 @ 8.68% (-0.0030000000000001 -0)
1-3 @ 6.47% (-0.0060000000000002 -0.01)
0-3 @ 5.69% (-0.0060000000000002 -0.01)
2-3 @ 3.68% (-0.0019999999999998 -0)
1-4 @ 3.18% (-0.0049999999999999 -0)
0-4 @ 2.8% (-0.0059999999999998 -0.01)
2-4 @ 1.81% (-0.0030000000000001 -0)
1-5 @ 1.25% (-0.0029999999999999 -0)
0-5 @ 1.1% (-0.0029999999999999 -0)
Other @ 3.28%
Total : 56.63%

How you voted: Exeter vs Middlesbrough

Exeter City
15.1%
Draw
7.0%
Middlesbrough
77.9%
86
rhs 2.0
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