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Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Accrington Stanley win with a probability of 41.57%. A win for Morecambe had a probability of 32.5% and a draw had a probability of 25.9%.
The most likely scoreline for an Accrington Stanley win was 1-0 with a probability of 10.01%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (8.78%) and 2-0 (7.14%). The likeliest Morecambe win was 0-1 (8.64%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.31%). The actual scoreline of 2-1 was predicted with an 8.8% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Accrington Stanley would win this match.
Result | ||
Accrington Stanley | Draw | Morecambe |
41.57% ( 0.06) | 25.92% ( 0.22) | 32.5% ( -0.29) |
Both teams to score 53.77% ( -0.83) |
Goals |
Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
49.55% ( -1.03) | 50.44% ( 1.03) |
Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
27.62% ( -0.92) | 72.37% ( 0.91) |
Accrington Stanley Goals |
Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
75.97% ( -0.42) | 24.03% ( 0.42) |
Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
41.7% ( -0.6) | 58.29% ( 0.6) |
Morecambe Goals |
Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
70.77% ( -0.69) | 29.22% ( 0.69) |
Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
34.82% ( -0.86) | 65.17% ( 0.86) |
Score Analysis |
Accrington Stanley | Draw | Morecambe |
1-0 @ 10.01% ( 0.29) 2-1 @ 8.78% ( -0.02) 2-0 @ 7.14% ( 0.12) 3-1 @ 4.17% ( -0.06) 3-0 @ 3.39% ( 0.02) 3-2 @ 2.57% ( -0.09) 4-1 @ 1.49% ( -0.04) 4-0 @ 1.21% ( -0.01) 4-2 @ 0.92% ( -0.04) Other @ 1.89% Total : 41.57% | 1-1 @ 12.31% ( 0.12) 0-0 @ 7.02% ( 0.29) 2-2 @ 5.4% ( -0.12) 3-3 @ 1.05% ( -0.06) Other @ 0.12% Total : 25.91% | 0-1 @ 8.64% ( 0.19) 1-2 @ 7.58% ( -0.07) 0-2 @ 5.31% ( 0.02) 1-3 @ 3.11% ( -0.09) 2-3 @ 2.22% ( -0.09) 0-3 @ 2.18% ( -0.04) 1-4 @ 0.96% ( -0.05) Other @ 2.52% Total : 32.51% |
Team | P | W | D | L | F | A | GD | PTS | |
1 | Port Vale | 16 | 10 | 3 | 3 | 24 | 16 | 8 | 33 |
2 | Walsall | 15 | 9 | 3 | 3 | 28 | 15 | 13 | 30 |
3 | Doncaster RoversDoncaster | 17 | 8 | 5 | 4 | 22 | 18 | 4 | 29 |
4 | Notts County | 17 | 7 | 7 | 3 | 23 | 15 | 8 | 28 |
5 | Crewe AlexandraCrewe | 15 | 8 | 4 | 3 | 19 | 13 | 6 | 28 |
6 | MK Dons | 16 | 8 | 3 | 5 | 27 | 19 | 8 | 27 |
7 | Chesterfield | 17 | 6 | 7 | 4 | 30 | 20 | 10 | 25 |
8 | Grimsby Town | 17 | 8 | 1 | 8 | 19 | 26 | -7 | 25 |
9 | AFC Wimbledon | 15 | 7 | 2 | 6 | 23 | 14 | 9 | 23 |
10 | Bradford CityBradford | 16 | 6 | 5 | 5 | 21 | 17 | 4 | 23 |
11 | Gillingham | 16 | 7 | 2 | 7 | 17 | 14 | 3 | 23 |
12 | BarrowBarrow | 17 | 6 | 4 | 7 | 17 | 16 | 1 | 22 |
13 | Fleetwood TownFleetwood | 14 | 5 | 6 | 3 | 20 | 15 | 5 | 21 |
14 | Cheltenham TownCheltenham | 17 | 6 | 3 | 8 | 22 | 25 | -3 | 21 |
15 | Salford City | 16 | 5 | 6 | 5 | 15 | 18 | -3 | 21 |
16 | Newport CountyNewport | 17 | 6 | 3 | 8 | 19 | 26 | -7 | 21 |
17 | Harrogate TownHarrogate | 17 | 6 | 3 | 8 | 16 | 23 | -7 | 21 |
18 | Accrington StanleyAccrington | 16 | 4 | 6 | 6 | 22 | 26 | -4 | 18 |
19 | Colchester UnitedColchester | 16 | 3 | 8 | 5 | 19 | 22 | -3 | 17 |
20 | Tranmere RoversTranmere | 15 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 10 | 18 | -8 | 17 |
21 | Bromley | 15 | 3 | 7 | 5 | 17 | 19 | -2 | 16 |
22 | Swindon TownSwindon | 17 | 2 | 7 | 8 | 20 | 28 | -8 | 13 |
23 | Morecambe | 17 | 3 | 4 | 10 | 17 | 29 | -12 | 13 |
24 | Carlisle UnitedCarlisle | 17 | 3 | 4 | 10 | 14 | 29 | -15 | 13 |
> League Two Full Table |