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Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Middlesbrough win with a probability of 49.08%. A win for Norwich City had a probability of 27.04% and a draw had a probability of 23.9%.
The most likely scoreline for a Middlesbrough win was 2-1 with a probability of 9.54%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (9.27%) and 2-0 (7.91%). The likeliest Norwich City win was 1-2 (6.75%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.18%). The actual scoreline of 3-1 was predicted with a 5.4% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Middlesbrough would win this match.
Result | ||
Middlesbrough | Draw | Norwich City |
49.08% ( -0.19) | 23.88% ( 0.05) | 27.04% ( 0.14) |
Both teams to score 57.34% ( -0.04) |
Goals |
Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
55.68% ( -0.11) | 44.32% ( 0.11) |
Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
33.3% ( -0.11) | 66.69% ( 0.11) |
Middlesbrough Goals |
Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
81.83% ( -0.12) | 18.17% ( 0.12) |
Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
50.85% ( -0.2) | 49.15% ( 0.2) |
Norwich City Goals |
Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
70.07% ( 0.05) | 29.93% ( -0.05) |
Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
33.96% ( 0.06) | 66.03% ( -0.06) |
Score Analysis |
Middlesbrough | Draw | Norwich City |
2-1 @ 9.54% ( -0.01) 1-0 @ 9.27% ( 0.01) 2-0 @ 7.91% ( -0.02) 3-1 @ 5.42% ( -0.03) 3-0 @ 4.5% ( -0.03) 3-2 @ 3.27% ( -0.01) 4-1 @ 2.31% ( -0.02) 4-0 @ 1.92% ( -0.02) 4-2 @ 1.4% ( -0.01) Other @ 3.54% Total : 49.08% | 1-1 @ 11.18% ( 0.03) 2-2 @ 5.75% ( -0) 0-0 @ 5.44% ( 0.03) 3-3 @ 1.32% ( -0) Other @ 0.18% Total : 23.87% | 1-2 @ 6.75% ( 0.02) 0-1 @ 6.56% ( 0.04) 0-2 @ 3.96% ( 0.03) 1-3 @ 2.71% ( 0.01) 2-3 @ 2.31% ( 0) 0-3 @ 1.59% ( 0.01) Other @ 3.16% Total : 27.04% |
Team | P | W | D | L | F | A | GD | PTS | |
1 | Leeds UnitedLeeds | 16 | 9 | 5 | 2 | 28 | 12 | 16 | 32 |
2 | Sunderland | 16 | 9 | 5 | 2 | 26 | 12 | 14 | 32 |
3 | Sheffield UnitedSheff Utd | 16 | 10 | 4 | 2 | 21 | 9 | 12 | 32 |
4 | Burnley | 16 | 8 | 6 | 2 | 19 | 6 | 13 | 30 |
5 | Middlesbrough | 16 | 8 | 3 | 5 | 29 | 19 | 10 | 27 |
6 | West Bromwich AlbionWest Brom | 16 | 6 | 8 | 2 | 18 | 11 | 7 | 26 |
7 | Watford | 16 | 8 | 2 | 6 | 25 | 24 | 1 | 26 |
8 | Millwall | 16 | 6 | 6 | 4 | 19 | 14 | 5 | 24 |
9 | Blackburn RoversBlackburn | 15 | 6 | 4 | 5 | 19 | 17 | 2 | 22 |
10 | Bristol City | 16 | 5 | 7 | 4 | 20 | 20 | 0 | 22 |
11 | Derby CountyDerby | 16 | 5 | 5 | 6 | 20 | 20 | 0 | 20 |
12 | Stoke CityStoke | 16 | 5 | 5 | 6 | 19 | 20 | -1 | 20 |
13 | Norwich CityNorwich | 16 | 4 | 7 | 5 | 25 | 24 | 1 | 19 |
14 | Swansea CitySwansea | 16 | 5 | 4 | 7 | 14 | 14 | 0 | 19 |
15 | Sheffield WednesdaySheff Weds | 16 | 5 | 4 | 7 | 18 | 26 | -8 | 19 |
16 | Luton TownLuton | 16 | 5 | 3 | 8 | 18 | 26 | -8 | 18 |
17 | Coventry CityCoventry | 16 | 4 | 5 | 7 | 22 | 23 | -1 | 17 |
18 | Oxford UnitedOxford Utd | 16 | 4 | 5 | 7 | 19 | 24 | -5 | 17 |
19 | Plymouth ArgylePlymouth | 16 | 4 | 5 | 7 | 17 | 28 | -11 | 17 |
20 | Preston North EndPreston | 16 | 3 | 7 | 6 | 16 | 24 | -8 | 16 |
21 | Cardiff CityCardiff | 16 | 4 | 4 | 8 | 15 | 24 | -9 | 16 |
22 | Hull City | 16 | 3 | 6 | 7 | 16 | 21 | -5 | 15 |
23 | Portsmouth | 15 | 2 | 6 | 7 | 16 | 28 | -12 | 12 |
24 | Queens Park RangersQPR | 16 | 1 | 8 | 7 | 13 | 26 | -13 | 11 |
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