On the verge of a place in the Copa Libertadores final, Botafogo travel to Estadio Campeon del Siglo to face Penarol in the second leg of that tie on Wednesday.
The opening leg in Rio was no contest as the Brazilians claimed an emphatic 5-0 triumph in their quest for a first-ever appearance in the final of this competition.
Match preview
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After a solid opening half, nearly everything that could go wrong did for Penarol after the interval, as they were beaten comprehensively last Wednesday.
The Uruguayans have lost two of their previous three away matches at this tournament and will need a massive effort to avoid elimination.
Penarol were riding an impressive three-match winning run domestically without conceding a single goal before their match with Fogo last week.
It is no secret that Diego Aguirre's men are in a massive hole heading into this contest, although they did claim a 5-0 triumph over Caracas at home in the group stage of this competition, while they defeated The Strongest 4-0 at home in the round of 16.
They have collected a clean sheet in nine successive home fixtures across all competitions and have not lost a Libertadores game at Estadio Campeon del Siglo this year, conceding just one goal.
Decano have not lost a Libertadores semi-final tie since Nacional eliminated them at this stage in 1969, advancing beyond this round in their last five semi-final Libertadores appearances.
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Whatever Artur Jorge said to his team at the half last Wednesday, it clearly resonated as the Brasileiro Serie A league leaders exploded with five unanswered goals.
While they put together a dominant second half, it was not their biggest victory of the tournament this year, as they clobbered Aurora 6-0 at home in the second leg of that qualification tie.
Baring a disastrous outing on Wednesday in Montevideo, the Rio-based club will book a place in the final for the first time in team history.
Botafogo are on a 14-match unbeaten run across all competitions, with their worst defeat of the year being a 3-0 loss at home to Cruzeiro in July.
Since a 1-0 defeat at LDU Quito on matchday two in the group stage, Estrella Solitaria are unbeaten away from home in this competition, playing to a 1-1 draw with Sao Paulo in the quarter-finals, advancing from that tie on penalties.
Fogo have never lost a Libertadores affair against a side from Uruguay, coming away with a 2-2 draw at Penarol in the 1973 group phase.
Team News
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There was only one newcomer in the Penarol starting 11 that featured in leg one of this tie who did not begin their previous quarter-final encounter, with Rodrigo Perez replacing Javier Cabrera.
Washington Aguerre has collected four clean sheets in five home contests at the Libertadores this year, while Leonardo Fernandez, Maximiliano Silvera, Jaime Baez and Facundo Batista each netted the last time they won a home match in this competition (4-0 over The Strongest).
Knee injuries will likely force Rafael and Jeffinho out of the Botafogo lineup on Wednesday, while the top goalscorer at the Libertadores this year, Junior Santos (nine goals), might be a few weeks away from returning from his leg issue.
Jefferson Savarino notched a brace in the opening leg of this tie, with Alexander Barboza, Luiz Henrique and Igor Jesus also scoring in that lopsided triumph.
Penarol possible starting lineup:
Aguerre; Milans, Mendez, Rodriguez, Olivera; Ramirez, Sosa, D. Garcia; Darias, Baez; Silvera
Botafogo possible starting lineup:
John; Vitinho, Bastos, Barboza, Telles; Freitas, Gregore; Romero, Savarino, Almada; Jesus
We say: Penarol 1-2 Botafogo (Botafogo advance 7-1 on aggregate)
Being so far behind heading into this decisive encounter will force Penarol to employ a very different approach than they are used to, and we do not see them being able to claim such a decisive victory against a side that have conceded the second-fewest goals (26) in the Brasileiro Serie A this year.
For data analysis of the most likely results, scorelines and more for this match please click here.
Joel Lefevre
