Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Start win with a probability of 45.14%. A win for Sarpsborg 08 had a probability of 28.73% and a draw had a probability of 26.1%.
The most likely scoreline for a Start win was 1-0 with a probability of 11.22%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (9.05%) and 2-0 (8.17%). The likeliest Sarpsborg 08 win was 0-1 (8.53%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.42%). The actual scoreline of 3-2 was predicted with a 2.4% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Start would win this match.