Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a AZ Alkmaar win with a probability of 48.15%. A win for FC Utrecht had a probability of 26% and a draw had a probability of 25.9%.
The most likely scoreline for an AZ Alkmaar win was 1-0 with a probability of 11.86%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (9.25%) and 2-0 (8.94%). The likeliest FC Utrecht win was 0-1 (8.15%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.27%). The actual scoreline of 5-1 was predicted with a 0.5% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that AZ Alkmaar would win this match.
