Aryna Sabalenka's quest for an Australian Open three-peat faces its sternest examination against teenage sensation Mirra Andreeva in Sunday's fourth-round contest.
The world No. 1 has yet to drop a set in the opening three rounds, unlike her 17-year-old opponent, who has twice required three sets en route to consecutive appearances in the fourth round but must be wary of the Belarusian in the pair's fifth tour meeting.
Match preview
© Imago
Although she came through round three in straight sets, Friday's 7-6(5), 6-4 success over Clara Tauson was the world No. 1's toughest test Down Under.
The two-time defending champion needed two hours and six minutes to reach a fifth consecutive Australian Open fourth round, extending her winning streak at Melbourne Park to 17 victories.
After emulating Iga Swiatek as the only WTA player to notch 150 hard-court victories since 2020 after her second-round win over Jessica Bouzas Maneiro, the Belarusian's 151st against Tauson saw her match Naomi Osaka's 2019 feat of 17 consecutive victories on the surface at Grand Slams.
Sabalenka's latest victory saw the top seed improve to 25-5 Down Under, an 83% win rate, surpassing the 26-year-old's 82% win rate at the US Open.
The No. 1 seed began her title defence after clinching this year's event in Brisbane, where she beat Sunday's opponent in the semi-final, and an additional three triumphs see the 18-time WTA Tour champion improve to 8-0 this season before facing her teenage opponent.
© Imago
Andreeva should be wet around the ears, but the 17-year-old's adorable smile and affable personality should not be mistaken for weakness, as evidenced by the Russian's response to second-set setbacks in rounds two and three.
The 14th seed needed nerves of steel in her second-round victory against Moyuka Uchijima to win a 10-point tie-break in the deciding set after being pegged back in set two and responded to falling 6-1 in Friday's round-three match with Magdalena Frech to claim the final set for a 6-2, 1-6, 6-2 success.
Both triumphs have set up another match-up with Sabalenka, against whom she lost in Brisbane en route to the Belarusian clinching the title, keen to stun the favourite for a third straight success in Australia.
Andreeva has experience of reaching the fourth round at Melbourne Park, having made it to a fourth match 12 months ago on her Aussie Open debut, only to fall in three sets to Barbora Krejcikova despite taking the opener.
Much has happened since then, with the teenager making her first Grand Slam semi-final at Roland Garros, stunning Sabalenka in the quarters in Paris, and she now enters Sunday's match seeking another victory over the current top seed at a Major.
Tournament so far
Aryna Sabalenka:
First round: vs. Sloane Stephens 6-3 6-2
Second round: vs. Jessica Bouzas Maneiro 6-3 7-5
Third round: vs. Clara Tauson 7-6[5] 6-4
Mirra Andreeva:
First round: vs. Marie Bouzkova 6-3 6-3
Second round: vs. Moyuka Uchijima 6-4 3-6 7-6[8]
Third round: vs. Magdalena Frech 6-2 1-6 6-2
Head To Head
Brisbane (2025) - Semi-final: Sabalenka 6-3 6-2
Roland Garros (2024) - Quarter-finals: Andreeva 6-7(5) 6-4 6-4
Madrid (2024) - Quarter-finals: Sabalenka 6-1 6-4
Madrid (2023) - Round of 16: Sabalenka 6-3 6-1
Sabalenka leads Andreeva 3-1 in their head-to-head, though only one contest has been on a hard court – their most recent in Brisbane.
The Russian teenager's only win over the world No. 1 came in the pair's only match-up at a Slam, albeit on the clay courts in Paris.
Andreeva is 4-8 against top-10 opponents, with all four triumphs coming last year – Ons Jabeur at the Australian Open, Marketa Vondrousova at the WTA 1000 in Madrid, Sabalenka at Roland Garros and Jasmine Paolini at the 1000 event in Cincinnati.
However, the 17-year-old has lost her last three against the elite, falling to Swiatek in Cincinnati, Qinwen Zheng in Beijing and Sabalenka in Brisbane.
We say: Sabalenka to win in three sets
Despite losing to Andreeva at Roland Garros last year, Sabalenka had not dropped sets in previous meetings before Paris and clinched the recent Brisbane win over the teenager in two.
Although the 14th seed could force a decider on Sunday, Sabalenka should advance to another last-eight match at Melbourne Park to face Donna Vekic or Anastasia Pavlyuchenkova.
