Champions League | Group Stage
Nov 24, 2021 at 8pm UK
Sporting Lisbon3 - 1Dortmund
We said: Sporting Lisbon 1-1 Borussia Dortmund
With Sporting needing to win by at least two goals to advance to the knockout rounds, the hosts are expected to pose an attacking threat throughout the 90 minutes, which could cause problems for Dortmund's depleted side. The visitors, meanwhile, may take a more cautious approach to Wednesday's clash as a draw would still keep their last-16 hopes in their own hands heading into the final Group C match next month. With little to separate these two sides, a score draw could be on the cards at the Estadio Jose Alvalade. Read more.Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Sporting Lisbon win with a probability of 49.99%. A win for Borussia Dortmund had a probability of 29.74% and a draw had a probability of 20.3%.
The most likely scoreline for a Sporting Lisbon win was 2-1 with a probability of 8.29%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 3-1 (6.16%) and 3-2 (5.25%). The likeliest Borussia Dortmund win was 1-2 (6.34%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (7.44%). The actual scoreline of 3-1 was predicted with a 6.2% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Sporting Lisbon would win this match.
| Result | ||
| Sporting Lisbon | Draw | Borussia Dortmund |
| 49.99% | 20.27% | 29.74% |
| Both teams to score 73% |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
