Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a TP Mazembe win with a probability of 41.69%. A win for Red Arrows had a probability of 29.34% and a draw had a probability of 29%.
The most likely scoreline for a TP Mazembe win was 0-1 with a probability of 13.66%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-2 (8.3%) and 1-2 (8.05%). The likeliest Red Arrows win was 1-0 (10.9%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (13.25%). The actual scoreline of 0-2 was predicted with an 8.3% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that TP Mazembe would win this match.