Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Mainz 05 win with a probability of 44.84%. A win for Augsburg had a probability of 30.52% and a draw had a probability of 24.6%.
The most likely scoreline for a Mainz 05 win was 1-2 with a probability of 9.19%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-1 (9.14%) and 0-2 (7.25%). The likeliest Augsburg win was 2-1 (7.34%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.58%). The actual scoreline of 3-1 was predicted with a 3.1% likelihood.