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Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Bayern Munich win with a probability of 81.33%. A draw had a probability of 12.1% and a win for Union Berlin had a probability of 6.6%.
The most likely scoreline for a Bayern Munich win was 2-0 with a probability of 11.09%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 3-0 (10.72%) and 2-1 (8.15%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (5.62%), while for a Union Berlin win it was 1-2 (2.07%). The actual scoreline of 1-0 was predicted with a 7.7% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Bayern Munich would win this match.
Result | ||
Bayern Munich | Draw | Union Berlin |
81.33% ( 0.03) | 12.07% ( -0.02) | 6.6% ( -0.01) |
Both teams to score 49.17% ( -0.01) |
Goals |
Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
70.33% ( 0.03) | 29.66% ( -0.02) |
Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
49.21% ( 0.03) | 50.78% ( -0.03) |
Bayern Munich Goals |
Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
94.49% ( 0.01) | 5.5% ( -0.01) |
Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
78.54% ( 0.03) | 21.46% ( -0.03) |
Union Berlin Goals |
Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
52.04% ( -0.02) | 47.96% ( 0.02) |
Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
16.79% ( -0.01) | 83.2% ( 0.01) |
Score Analysis |
Bayern Munich | Draw | Union Berlin |
2-0 @ 11.09% 3-0 @ 10.72% 2-1 @ 8.15% ( -0.01) 3-1 @ 7.88% 4-0 @ 7.78% ( 0.01) 1-0 @ 7.65% ( -0.01) 4-1 @ 5.71% ( 0) 5-0 @ 4.51% ( 0.01) 5-1 @ 3.31% ( 0) 3-2 @ 2.9% ( -0) 6-0 @ 2.18% ( 0) 4-2 @ 2.1% 6-1 @ 1.6% ( 0) 5-2 @ 1.22% ( 0) 7-0 @ 0.9% ( 0) Other @ 3.6% Total : 81.31% | 1-1 @ 5.62% ( -0.01) 2-2 @ 3% ( -0) 0-0 @ 2.64% ( -0) Other @ 0.81% Total : 12.07% | 1-2 @ 2.07% ( -0) 0-1 @ 1.94% ( -0) Other @ 2.6% Total : 6.6% |
Team | P | W | D | L | F | A | GD | PTS | |
C | Bayer LeverkusenB. Leverkusen | 34 | 28 | 6 | 0 | 89 | 24 | 65 | 90 |
2 | Stuttgart | 34 | 23 | 4 | 7 | 78 | 39 | 39 | 73 |
3 | Bayern MunichBayern | 34 | 23 | 3 | 8 | 94 | 45 | 49 | 72 |
4 | RB Leipzig | 34 | 19 | 8 | 7 | 77 | 39 | 38 | 65 |
5 | Borussia DortmundDortmund | 34 | 18 | 9 | 7 | 68 | 43 | 25 | 63 |
6 | Eintracht FrankfurtFrankfurt | 34 | 11 | 14 | 9 | 51 | 50 | 1 | 47 |
7 | Hoffenheim | 34 | 13 | 7 | 14 | 66 | 66 | 0 | 46 |
8 | Heidenheim | 34 | 10 | 12 | 12 | 50 | 55 | -5 | 42 |
9 | Werder Bremen | 34 | 11 | 9 | 14 | 48 | 54 | -6 | 42 |
10 | Freiburg | 34 | 11 | 9 | 14 | 45 | 58 | -13 | 42 |
11 | Augsburg | 34 | 10 | 9 | 15 | 50 | 60 | -10 | 39 |
12 | Wolfsburg | 34 | 10 | 7 | 17 | 41 | 56 | -15 | 37 |
13 | Mainz 05Mainz | 34 | 7 | 14 | 13 | 39 | 51 | -12 | 35 |
14 | Borussia MonchengladbachBorussia M'bach | 34 | 7 | 13 | 14 | 56 | 67 | -11 | 34 |
15 | Union BerlinUnion Berlin | 34 | 9 | 6 | 19 | 33 | 58 | -25 | 33 |
16 | VfL BochumVfL Bochum | 34 | 7 | 12 | 15 | 42 | 74 | -32 | 33 |
17 | FC Koln | 34 | 5 | 12 | 17 | 28 | 60 | -32 | 27 |
R | SV Darmstadt 98Darmstadt | 34 | 3 | 8 | 23 | 30 | 86 | -56 | 17 |
> Bundesliga Full Table |