Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Central Coast Mariners win with a probability of 63.57%. A draw had a probability of 18.7% and a win for Wellington Phoenix had a probability of 17.71%.
The most likely scoreline for a Central Coast Mariners win was 2-1 with a probability of 9.55%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (8.11%) and 3-1 (7.49%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (8.11%), while for a Wellington Phoenix win it was 1-2 (4.77%). The actual scoreline of 2-1 was predicted with a 9.5% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted a 2-1 win for Central Coast Mariners in this match.